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Surveys Without the Spin
A Massive Poll  May 10, 2003

Coquitlam-An aggregate survey of 5,372 respondents in 79 ridings between April 7, 2003 and May 10, 2003 relating to percentage of popular vote attributable to each political party in British Columbia and seats attributable to each party if an election were held tomorrow. The error rate is 2.5%, 19 times out of 20 @ 98% competency rate

Political Party Percentage of Popular Vote
BC Liberal    40 %
NDP    31 %
Green    12 %
Reform BC    08 %
Unity Party    06 %
Number of Definite Seats*
BC Liberal    30 seats
NDP    18 seats
Reform BC    2 seats
Green    0 seats
Unity Party    0 seats
*A definite seat is one where the political party has a lead of 5 percentage points or more.
Number of competitive seats-29**
BC Liberals and NDP compete in 29 seats
**A competitive seat is one where the political parties are within less than 5 percentage points of the other.
Commentary
Much has been said in the media about the state of affairs in BC politics after two years of the BC Liberals in office. We have recently published percentages of public support for BC political parties based on a riding-by-riding basis. This is consistent with first past the post, or conventional electoral voting in the province. This survey reflects the popular vote, as some ridings in the province have lower turnouts for voting than others vote.
Although the riding-by-riding percentages are consistent with our electoral system and reflect circumstances as they are, the popular vote provides insight as well.

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