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BC New Democrats take decisive 'finite structural' lead over BC Liberals
  Nov 15, 2004

This is a random survey of a ‘targeted composition’ of 2,235 respondents in all regions of British Columbia. This survey was conducted between November 10-16, 2004. It features a margin of error of 2.75%, 19 times out of 20 @98% competency.

Question #1
How did you cast your vote in the Election in 2001?
BC Liberals    61 %
New Democrats    22 %
Green Party    10.5 %
Unity BC    2.5 %
Question #2
What is the principle language spoken in your home?
English    77.5 %
Chinese    10.5 %
Punjabi    05 %
Other    07 %
Question #3
If there was an election tomorrow, how would you cast your vote?
New Democrats and Carole James    49 %
BC Liberals and Gordon Campbell    41 %
Green Party and Adrienne Carr    07 %
Question #4
Who do you prefer to lead BC from May 2005-May 2009?
Gordon Campbell and BC Liberals    36 %
Carol James and New Democratic Party    59 %
Question #5
Once you have made your decision to vote in question 3, how likely is it that you will change your mind?
Very Likely    0 %
Likely    03 %
Unlikely    19 %
Not Very Likely    77 %
Question #6
For many years, marriage has been an ‘institution’ defined by all convention, legal or otherwise as a union between a man and a woman. In your opinion, should this ‘institution’ be redefined to include marriage between a man and a man, or a woman and a woman?
Yes    43 %
No    57 %
Question #7
In your opinion will ‘Hate Crime Legislation’ deter individuals from committing crimes against particular groups in society, such as gays and ethnic minorities?
Yes    40 %
No    60 %
Commentary
Gordon Campbell and the BC Liberals have lost more then one-third of the popular vote they received in 2001 to the Carole James and the New Democratic Party. The overwhelming majority of votes lost by the BC Liberals are women, followed by ethnic voters.
A majority of women have left the BC Liberal Party to go to either (a) the New Democrats, or (b) to a lesser extent the Green Party. The ethnic vote appears to have completely reversed itself from supporting the BC Liberals in the vast majority in 2001, to now supporting the New Democrats on slightly less then a 3 to 2 ratio.
Gordon Campbell has most significant problems with women voters in every corner of the province. (Many women respondents seem shocked that you would even offer Premier Campbell as a choice.) On Vancouver Island, and the lower mainland from Vancouver to Surrey, which include 22 ridings where the ethnic vote is a significant factor, Gordon Campbell’s BC Liberals have a similar, albeit less stark problem, with ethnic voters. His popularity improves in Langley and the Fraser Valley but this support is certainly not overwhelming like it once was. Gordon Campbell’s personal popularity is not very high in Kamloops and the Okanagan; however his BC Liberals party should retain most of the seats in the Okanagan at least. Kamloops will be a contest.
Respondents, who selected “Unity” or “Other” in Question #1, were reluctant or refused to make selections to Questions #3 and #4. These respondents are no more pleased with their voting choices today then they were during the last general provincial election. Female respondents who voted for BC Liberals in 2001 and who select Green Party today, choose Carole James over Gordon Campbell.
Over 95% of these 2001 voters are already ‘locked in’ to their 2005 vote.
There is no demographic in which BC Liberals receive more support then the NDP, other than men. Gordon Campbell would need to convince nearly 80% of decided male voters to vote for him to ‘get even’ with Carole James and the New Democrats. The Premier simply isn’t attractive to independent male voters. He is not a man’s man. Campbell has affectively fended off the other centre right parties, but these voters are spiteful of exclusion and likely won’t be available for him in sufficient number to add to his totals on Election Day. Instead the BC Liberal desire for a head to head against the New Democrats with the Green splitting the NDP vote will be the featured political attraction in May 2005. That likelihood however will leave the BC Liberals a number of seats short of government after Election Day.
BC voters have been disappointed with the Campbell government, and are willing to try the New Democrats again. It would appear that the “devil they know” is not someone they want to support over the “devil they don’t know.”
A few old time New Democrats running in the next election should not hurt the party. Voters feel the NDP have paid their political penance, and the BC Liberals have to make the case to voters that they have earned another mandate under Gordon Campbell. The chances of this happening, according to this survey, are pretty slim.
The budget surplus that the BC Liberals crowed about during the Surrey-Panorama by-election in October 2004 apparently doesn’t sell well in too many parts of the province where the problems people are having with health care and schools are far greater than any amount of media spin can possibly overcome. The Kootenay region of the province stands out as a place where nothing outlined in the design in Victoria had any real success in implementation ‘at ground zero’. BC is so diverse and in many ways in such contrast from region to region that a greater hands on approach in all regions from all ministerial portfolios much be used.
Respondents in this survey in the majority do not agree with the ‘institution’ of marriage being redefined to include gay couples. Although the number in support of gay marriages has increased since our last survey(s) by 7% since Year 2003 and by 18% since Year 2000, there isn’t sufficient support, particularly amongst male or ethnic respondents to make gay marriage acceptable to the majority of society.
Respondents do not think that by simply creating a law, unsocial behaviour will go away. Most respondents realize what the police already know, and that is about 3-5 per cent of the population create 95 per cent of the criminal problem.

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