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Voter turnout-numbers on English/French debate/Conservatives growing
  Jun 16, 2004

This random survey of 5,678 Canadians who answered a qualifying question-are you eligible to vote and do you intend to vote in the federal general election on June 28, 2004?-3822 respondents were than available for question #2 which 587 completed. All 3,822 respondents completed question #3. This survey was conducted between June 15 and June 17, 2004 by both computerized phone system and regular telephone system. Computerized strategic callers averaged 23 respondents per hour and regular telephone 15.
4799 of the total qualifying 5,678 respondents were achieved through computerized telephone calls, the balance from regular telephone calls. 110 respondents were achieved by Glen P. Robbins from all parts of the country. More respondents (72 per cent) were achieved during the day, and (28 per cent) after dinner).
Efforts were taken to achieve respondent totals which corresponded to population in each province. This survey has a margin of error of 1.75%, 19 times out of 20 @99% competency. This survey was sponsored in part by a private firm having offices in the United States

Question #1
Do you intend to vote in the general federal election on June 28, 2004?
Yes    67.44 %
No    32.70 %
Question #2
Did you watch either the English or French televised debates on television?
Yes    15.40% %
No    84.70 %
Question #3
Who, in your opinion were first and second place in the television debates that you watched?
First place-Paul Martin    23.70 %
First place-Stephen Harper    31.60 %
First place-Jack Layton    22.50 %
First place-Gilles Duceppe    19.60 %
Question #4
For which party and leader are you most likely to vote on June 28, 2004?
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party    33.90 %
Paul Martin and federal Liberal party    29.80 %
Jack Layton and NDP    20.40 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois    13.10 %
Commentary
It is fairly certain that two things came out of the debates in this election, one in particular the mainstream press and pollsters completely missed. Stephen Harper will form the next government and the leader of the Bloc Quebecois cleaned up during the debates.
Mr. Duceppe's phenomenal performance aside, he was able to communicate to western Canadians that Quebec is just as frustrated as they are with Ottawa. Mr. Duceppe is saying that our problems are not with each other but with the federal government.
Paul Martin improved his fortunes sufficiently in Ontario to hold off a Stephen Harper landslide in that province. His fortunes in Quebec and the rest of the country are less than acceptable with raw support declining in all parts of the country and particularly British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec and to a less extent, the Martitimes.
As at this poll, Stephen Harper still had a 5 per cent lead over PM Martin in Ontario, however many of Martin's winning ridings have very high percentages which skew his overall support by nearly one quarter of one per cent throughout the country.

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