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RSR ROBBINS - Glen P. Robbins - Arizona Poll - Trump support/Economy - Kavanaugh v Ford - credibility=competence, the other 8 Judges US Supreme Court
  Oct 01, 2018

Question #1
Support in Election 2016 (adjusted for baseline):
Donald Trump, Republican    48 %
Hillary Clinton, Democrat    45 %
Question #2
Support for Trump now (State of Arizona):
Yes    56 %
No    37 %
Question #3
Confidence in the Economy (*doesn't capture new free trade deal)
Yes    76 %
No    14 %
Question #4
Which of the following two responses choices BEST reflects your assessment of the United States Senate Hearings ongoing with one more week for another FBI Investigation (push language “one more week”, “another”)?
The U.S. Senate Hearings have been going on TOO long    74 %
The Investigation into Judge Brett Kavanaugh has NOT been long enough    27 %
(Undecided/Can’t Answer/All Other)    14 %
Question #5
From the following response choices – which BEST reflects your impression of which choice BEST defines the word “courageous” in context of events relating to Senate Hearings of Brett Kavanaugh for U.S. Supreme Court?
It takes more courage to come out 36 years later to make a serious sexual assault complaint    15 %
It takes more courage to come out and make a serious sexual assault complaint right after it occurs    45 %
It takes more courage to fight for your good name – defamed in the media for no good purpose    40 %
Question #6
According to general accepted administrative principles in both U.S. and Canadian administrative law – and other general legal principles – not to a criminal standard – to be credible a person must be competent defined as “having the necessary ability, knowledge and skill to do something successfully” the top level of competency, and “acceptable, satisfactory, though not outstanding” at the common and lower standard of competency. In your opinion were Brett Kavanaugh’s efforts before Senate Judiciary – an example or demonstration of higher or lower competence?
Higher competence    71 %
Lower Confidence    17 %
Undecided/All Other    12 %
Question #7
According to general accepted administrative principles in both U.S. and Canadian administrative law – and other general legal principles – not to a criminal standard – to be credible a person must be competent defined as “having the necessary ability, knowledge and skill to do something successfully” the top level of competency, and “acceptable, satisfactory, though not outstanding” at the common and lower standard. In your opinion were Dr. Ford’s efforts before Senate Judiciary – an example or demonstration of higher or lower incompetence?
Higher competence    11 %
Lower Confidence    60 %
Question #8
The U.S. Supreme Court now has only 8 of the 9 Judges to do the country’s top legal work awaiting a replacement of Justice Kennedy. If the current 8 Judges of the U.S. Supreme Court recommended Brett Kavanaugh would you support his nomination?
Yes    85 %
No    15 %
Commentary
State of Arizona (Target) 2016 Voters - adjustments made to baseline not considered in Margin of Error Estimate - but separately - as high as .3%.
Participants (estimated at 27%) of list either watched or spent a great deal of time obtaining information - watching the hearings - getting news and opinion and making an informed opinion "with some knowledge of the facts".
Margin of Error set at 2.25%.
Mainstream press has Kavanaugh down 4/3 with 50% support for complainant Dr. Ford.
My polls have it the opposite with growing gulf between my polls particularly on Brett Kavanaugh since 2011.
In the September 11, 2018 poll – we asked at Question #3 “In your opinion is news generated from an anonymous source – credible news?” Nationally (34%) responded “Yes” while (54%) responded “No”.
This question was intended to capture news on Bob Woodward’s book and other news and articles suggesting chaos in the White House, directly and aggressively refuted by it and by extension other Trump, history of news ‘coming after him’ including Special Counsel based on much anonymous source.
This (38%) anonymous news – as it relates to my numbers’ - is rendered at the point in time where accusations first come out relating to actions of sexual assault (attempted rape by Dr. Ford in testimony) reflected in timely way in my September 11, 2018 poll.
This (38%) provided invite to Dr. Ford as it was thus (10%-12%). The calls came for cessation of hearings from anonymous source - FBI investigation. Republicans responded by giving voice to 6 previous FBI hearings and Senator Joe Biden’s (vice president to Barack Obama) impassioned lecture on FBI Investigations for use in Senate Hearings involving nominations to the U.S. Supreme Court (Clarence Thomas).
If the FBI Investigation ends ‘benign to influence on the process’ – the Democrats – including most particularly Dianne Feinstein (California) are hurt. It will be interpreted to original statements from Democratic leadership since July 2018 when Judge Kavanaugh was announced by President Trump suggesting ‘all costs’ approach to stopping him. The mainstream press interprets this as necessary to get the vote out.
I would - barring any remarkably unique circumstances place damages to Brett Kavanaugh's name at U.S. $15,000,000 - if "defamation" ceases.
I would assess a bad faith charge against Senator Feinstein - and possibly colleagues.
California law case precedence - asserts upwards of 15% of net worth can be applied from guilty defendant's personal wealth.
If I were a betting man I would place odds against Kavanaugh being confirmed at 75/1. Big arbitrage is polling news -.
I would take bigger odds and double down on Republicans winning Senate (53-55 seats) and House. Big Polling Arbitrage in news and polling here.
G.P.R. 12:15 PM PST.
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