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RSR ROBBINS - Glen P. Robbins - Canada Poll - Leader and Party support, NAFTA, NAFTA - Trump Trudeau on the Economy
  Jul 21, 2018

Question #1
Which federal party and leader in Canada do you support right now?
Justin Trudeau/Liberals    34 %
Andrew Scheer/Conservatives    34 %
Jagmeet Singh/New Democrats    22 %
Elizabeth May/Greens    4 %
Other Party    5 %
(Undecided)    12 %
Question #2
Is solving the North America Free Trade Agreement important to you?
Yes    41 %
No    44 %
Question #3
In your opinion did Justin Trudeau's NAFTA Team manage the Trump White House well in negotiations?
Yes    29 %
No    52 %
Question #4
In your opinion whose economy will perform best over the next two years?
President Donald Trump and the United States    66 %
Justin Trudeau and Canada    26 %
Commentary
Question 1 - JT/L: BC (26%), Alta (23%), Sask (21%), Manitoba (35%), Ontario (36%), Quebec (33%), Atlantic Provinces (41%). AS/C: BC (32%), Alta (50%), Sask (52%), Manitoba (33%), Ontario (35%), Quebec (27%), Atlantic Provinces (27%). JS/D: BC (30%), Alta (17%), Sask (23%), Manitoba (25%), Ontario (24%), Quebec (19%), Atlantic Provinces (27%).
Results of 2015 Canadian Federal Election: JT/L: 39.5%, SH/C: 31.9%, TM/N: 19.9%, GD/B: 4.7%, EM/G: 3.5%. On net basis JT/L down (25%), AS (replacing Stephen Harper) down (5%), TM/N EVEN, GD/B down (35%).
The big losers are Justin Trudeau's Liberals and the Quebec Separatists.
Questions 2 & 3: NAFTA is most important to Ontario (52%)followed by Alberta (48%), with lowest support Quebec (32%) followed by British Columbia (34%).
Trudeau's NAFTA TEAM did a poor job of managing relations with Trump on the file with net respondents of (29%) saying file managed well, and (52%) saying not managed well. Large undecided with clear onus on Trudeau to say why he didn't change the Minister. Canada operates under the allegation of responsible government.
Trump wins because Canadians see the American economy cooking with gas, while Canada sells its gas to China who just finished sodomizing our real estate market.
Question 4: Trump USA scores highest in Quebec (71%) followed by Alberta (68%), and scores lowest in Manitoba (58%) followed by Atlantic Provinces (59%). Trudeau scores highest in Ontario (29%) and British Columbia (29%), and lowest in Saskatchewan (18%) followed by Alberta (22%).
The high Undecided in Question 1 predicated on the Liberal Government's lackluster performance an enabling media - frustrating more Canadians than exciting them - and who now have difficulty finding another choice - resulting in a more attractive Decided support outcome (34%) than Trudeau's Liberals likely deserve based on merit.
Andrew Scheer's permitting Stephen Harper, a Conservative with no real entrepreneurial experience,and to many of us not a real Conservative, a proxy for 'Canadian Globalist lobby' was downright stupid.
Scheer's credibility was inching up while Trudeau's was heading downward by greater amount, decided to give Trudeau a 2nd chance reintroducing Harper who many Canadians like less than Trudeau.
Jagmeet Singh NDP is in the game here - but only because his gains are likely Trudeau losses. If the Federal NDP can understand that they won't be winning government in 2019 they can control it based on the poor opportunity for another Trudeau majority government.
The Trudeau government bought into the anti Trump hysteria from anti Trump media in the United States. The one Canada voice on NAFTA may have helped Doug Ford conclude an election win the recent Ontario election, but Canadians don't buy into the nationalistic approach.
Canadians in the middle are becoming anti left without necessarily supporting Conservatives or any party for that matter.
Other Party and Undecided suck a lot of support out of the room in Federal politics, and as he has done in the past to great success, so has Trump, even when Canadians don't like him.
During and after Cabinet changes - MOE Estimate 2%.
GPR

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