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RSR ROBBINS (1998) Large Sample California Poll Trump v Sanders (2020)
  Apr 21, 2018

Question #1
Which candidate and party did you vote for in the 2016 U.S. Presidential race? (Rounded)
Hillary Clinton, Democrat    62 %
Donald Trump, Republican    33 %
Gary Johnson, Libertarian    4 %
Jill Stein, Green Party    2 %
Question #2
If the 2020 Presidential election were (magically) held tomorrow, for the purposes of debate, which of these following (2) two candidates would you support? (Net support)
Donald Trump, Republican    41 %
Bernie Sanders, Democrat    41 %
Other    4 %
(Undecided et al)    14 %
Question #3
Do you support Sanctuary Cities in the State of California?
Yes    31 %
No    52 %
Question #4
Do you support the sale of crude oil from the Province of British Columbia, Canada to California by large tanker ship?
Yes    33 %
No    43 %
Question #5
Do you support President Trump ‘modernizing’ the decades old North America Free Trade Agreement including specifically provisions relating to the construction of a Border Wall with Mexico (as was promised by President Trump during the 2016 presidential election)?
Yes    47 %
No    24 %
Commentary
Q#2 Trump v Sanders
President Trump & Republican support in this RSR ROBBINS poll is up (net) (30%) from the 2016 presidential contest, while Bernie Sanders and Democrats is down (33%) from Hillary’s huge California Electoral win.
In this RSR ROBBINS poll, Bernie Sanders & President Trump reset as equals.
Readers may recall Bernie Sanders really made a push to catch Hillary Clinton at the end of the Democrat nomination race – culminating in a close but no cigar outcome & losing to Hillary Clinton 54%-46%.
Hillary Clinton later crushed Donald Trump by nearly 30%, only to ultimately lose the presidency so many believed she had in the bag.
On a decided basis in this RSR ROBBINS poll – Bernie Sanders is (47%), as is Donald Trump (47%) with slightly lower ‘other’ (if other is Libertarian or Green). However, on a net basis, Senator Sanders is down (10%) from his 2016 primary score v Clinton, with Trump support now equivalent to “W’s” California averages and (15%) above vote outcomes for John McCain v Obama, and Romney v Obama.
A recent RSR ROBBINS poll in Florida revealed that not only did President Trump continue his 2016 winning ways in every County in that State, he was fast encroaching in counties in Florida over one million won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. President Trump’s support increases consistently month over month in Florida.
Traditionally, Florida is a must win State in any presidential election, and I submit (early) that the Democrats are not going to beat President Trump in Florida in 2020. Accordingly, what new strategy will future Democrat presidential hopefuls for 2020 pursue against ‘this new political reality beyond ‘wishing and hoping’ (Dusty Springfield) the Republicans elect to cut off their own noses?
This RSR ROBBINS poll provokes wonder if Trump could win California like President Reagan did in the 80’s?
Let’s canvass where President Trump has increased support in the State of California in this poll. I categorized as to vote population (e.g. 20 counties under 20k); 12 @ 20k to 50k pop.; 3 @ 51k-110k.; 9 @ 101-200k.; 14 @ 200k >.
In the < 20 K category former Secretary of State Clinton won 15 counties, while Donald Trump won 5. Now Trump has higher support in (16) of those counties and Senator Sanders has (4).
President Trump increases potential 2020 support by > 15,000 voters in smallest counties.
In the 20k to 50k pop. Demographic, President Trump won 6 Counties, as did Ms. Clinton (6). Our poll grants President Trump (8) counties to Senator Sanders (4) with a support bump of 16,000. In 51k to 100k President Trump won 2 Counties, Secretary Clinton 1. Our poll has Trump with (2) and Sanders (1). The net increase for support for Trump in our poll is 11,000.
In 101-200k Demographic in 2016 Clinton won 8, while Trump won 1 County. In this poll Trump wins (3), while Sanders wins (5) and one county is a draw, a bump of 55,000 to Trump. In 2016 in those Counties with over 200K, Hillary won 12 to Trump’s 1. Now Bernie has (7) ‘won’, Trump has (6) with an associated bump to Trump of 632,000 for a total before adjustments or accounting as Decided – to 767,000.
In Counties over 200k population President is up (19%) in Los Angeles County while Senator Sanders is down (35%). In Orange County Trump is up (3%) while Sanders is down (12%) from Hillary California totals in 2016. In Riverside County, Trump is even while Sanders is down (8%). In San Diego County Trump is up (16%) while Sanders is down (15%). In Ventura County Trump is up (6%) while Sanders is down (10%). In San Bernardino County Trump is up (7%), while Sanders is down (6%).
In Fresno County, Trump is up (6%) while Sanders is down (10%). Kern County Trump up (5%), Sanders down (7%). In Morin County Trump up (8%), Sanders down (17%). In smaller Mariposa County Trump up (9%) Sanders down (8%) from Hillary California totals.
In Nevada County, Trump up (2%), Sanders down (7%). In Placer County, Trump up (3%), Sanders down (11%). In Sacramento County, Trump up (6%), Sanders down (6%). In San Francisco County Trump down (2%), Sanders down (10%).
In Santa Cruz County, Trump up (15%), Sanders down (23%). Alameda County, Trump up (11%), Sanders down (22%).
In Humboldt County, Trump is up (3%), while Sanders is down (8%).
Donald Trump is taking Hillary Clinton support in the southern half of California with support among Hispanic/Latino, Asian and specifically 2nd language at home voters rising rapidly.
Q#3
Support for Sanctuary Cities: Sanders, Democrat (68%) “Yes”, (21%) “No”. Support for Sanctuary Cities: Trump, Republican (2%) “Yes”, (91%) “No”. Other is (33%) “Yes” & (56%) “No”.
Q#4
Support for British Columbia tanker traffic full of Alberta crude (HOT) oil: Sanders, Democrat (26%) “Yes”, (65%) “NO”. Trump, Republican support (51%) “Yes”, (34%) “No”. Other (21%) “Yes”, (61%) “No”.
Q#5
Support for ‘modernizing’ NAFTA: Sanders, Democrat (30%) “Yes”, (46%) “No”. Trump, Republican (81%) “Yes”, (16%) “No”. Other (62%) “Yes”, (8%) “No”.
Methodology: RSR ROBBINS representative hybrid of random polling of 2016 presidential voters and use of survey (not random) with Estimate of Margin of Error on (6,250) at 1.25%. Calendar scope of conduct of poll – most recent 10 days.
A commercial poll with affidavit in support estimated cost US$720,820.

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