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Canada 150: World Pollster Glen P. Robbins Billion $$ Baby Featuring: J Trudeau, D Trump, B. Obama, globalism (global warming), terrorism, FREER TRADE, Big News on Pipelines BC-Que - (cameo: M Bernier, A Scheer, P Julian
  Jun 21, 2017

Question #1
Which one of the following response choices best reflects who you support in federal Canadian politics today? (Shown to 100%).
Justin Trudeau, Montreal Quebec MP and Liberal Party of Canada    34.82 %
Andrew Scheer, Regina Saskatchewan MP and Conservative Party of Canada    27.55 %
Peter Julian, New Westminster British Columbia MP and New Democratic Party of Canada    21.20 %
*Maxime Bernier, Saint Georges Quebec MP and Libertarian Party of Canada    10.46 %
Elizabeth May, Saanich BC MP and Green Party of Canada    3.19 %
Martine Ouellet, Member National Assembly of Quebec and leader Bloc Quebecois Party    2.36 %
Other Leader & Party    1.02 %
Undecided    6.83 %
Question #2
A 'Globalist' is defined as someone who sees the operation and planning of economic and other matters through a worldwide lens, the Nationalist sees the country (nation) as most important, while a 'Communitarianist' sees the local community as most important. To the best of your ability which are you (most)?
Globalist    19 %
Nationalist    28 %
Communitarianist    29 %
None of these    13 %
Undecided/Can't Answer    11 %
Question #3
Which one of the following issues is most important to you today?
Fighting Isis and Terrorism    35 %
Fighting Global Warming    30 %
Neither    21 %
Undecided    14 %
Question #4
Is Freedom of Speech a very important legal right to you?
Yes    60 %
No    22 %
Undecided/Can't Answer    18 %
Question #5
In your opinion (“Yes” or “No”), should the Liberal Government of Canada have the sole authority to force provinces like Quebec and British Columbia to accept federal government orders and approvals for the construction of pipelines within their own provinces, in order to carry Alberta 'crude oil' to their respective coastlines, even if the populations of those provinces don't believe the construction of the pipelines is in their public interest as citizens of those provinces?
Yes    43 %
No    49 %
Question #6
Most of Canada's major oil companies are located in Calgary Alberta, a province whose primary industry is oil. Canada's National Energy Board, whose job it is to assess viability of energy products is also located in Calgary. In your opinion is it a good idea to have the regulator of oil projects across the country located in the same city as the oil companies head offices.
Yes    41 %
No    55 %
Question #7
Would you support a temporary ban of immigration to Canada from any country which openly sponsors terrorism?
Yes    46 %
No    42 %
Undecided    12 %
Question #8
Would you be willing to support a bilateral trade agreement between Canada and the United States, without Mexico in the mix?
Yes    56 %
No    37 %
Question #9
Would you support a new enhanced Free Trade (more freer trade) with the United States so long as the border is “safe, secure & swift”?
Yes    67 %
No    29 %
Undecided    4 %
Question #10
Generally speaking, when it comes to size of Federal government which do you prefer?
Larger government    22 %
Smaller government    38 %
Same size as now    24 %
Don't Care/Undecided    15 %
Question #11
Entertainment Question (I): Which of these American politicians/political actors do you prefer:
U.S. President Donald J. Trump    28 %
(Former) U.S. President Barack Obama    47 %
(Former) Secretary of State Hillary Clinton    21 %
Question #12
Entertainment Question (II): Generally speaking, which gender of person do you believe makes the better political leader?
Male    50 %
Female    30 %
Both Genders are Equal    17 %
Undecided/Can't Answer    3 %
Commentary
Q 1
Justin Trudeau/Liberals by Province: BC (24%), Alberta (27%), Saskatchewan (24%), Manitoba (37%), Ontario (40%), Quebec (28%), Atlantic Provinces (43%)
Justin Trudeau is 'King of Canadian Visible Minorities (a quasi King) – and leads among all leaders and parties in this RSR ROBBINS poll. However, the Trudeau Liberals have less support overall than he received in the 2015 General Federal Election [39.6%].
There are two reasons that support for Justin Trudeau is down based on polling outcomes. The First Reason is that federal New Democrats (in this poll led by NDP leadership candidate Peter Julian) have seen a spike in its own support as a consequence of the most recent BC provincial election outcome and all of the attention it placed on parliamentary democracy, responsible government, minority governments.
In and of itself this has given some great lift to the NDP brand and Peter Julian, BC NDP leadership candidate from New Westminster, British Columbia. Peter Julian is very smart, thoughtful – and true blue NDP – with great grasp of economic and environmental tensions.
New Westminster is British Columbia's original Capital. With provincial NDP leader John Horgan being from Victoria, the actual Capital of British Columbia, makes this a nice fit, and potentially for some good stuff for the history books too.
With Nathan Cullen – another phenomenal BC NDP MP - with more than enough skill himself to lead the NDP party – the leader ultimately chosen will possess a front bench I believe to be better than any either the Liberal Government or Conservative Opposition.
If leadership candidate Peter Julian is not well known to Canadians the NDP brand is, and has become the center of significant national attention before and following the recent provincial general election in that province this last May.
Ultimately the BC support for the federal NDP as projected through the power of Peter Julian attracts sufficient support to increase their national support by (2.5%). “Catch a wave and your sitting on top of the World” (Brian Wilson/Beach Boys).
The Second Reason Trudeau and federal Liberals are down is the introduction of Maxime Bernier as leader of the Libertarian Party of Canada into our polling efforts, hoping to forecast and project for betterment of management of political resources (expected to be limited in BC).
Our Bernier efforts are undertaken for a multitude of good and rationale reasons, not the least of which is the end of the Conservative race was not satisfying, not because Andrew Scheer (new Conservative Party Leader) isn't a brilliant and appropriate new leader, in fact, a positive person would say this is a good base from which to move forward to the next election for he and his party. I would say to him though – watch out.
Maxime Bernier attracts a significant chunk of “Caucasian” (provided as “Caucasian/White” respondents) from every other party. This directly affects not only Trudeau's/Liberals popularity totals, but also the Bloc Quebecois, (the Separatist Party in the Province of Quebec) who take a hammering in our poll today and the New Democrats.
It affects the federal NDP in Quebec because of their higher load of Caucasian/White support – and generally the overall pressure a viable new political force in federal politics might be produced in Maxime Bernier. Frankly – this opportunity is very exciting.
Andrew Scheer/Conservatives by Province: BC (17%), Alberta (43%), Saskatchewan (43%), Manitoba (24%), Ontario (33%), Quebec (10%), Atlantic Provinces (26%).
Andrew Scheer & Conservatives take a modest beating in this poll. His support is much lower than the 2015 Election Outcome results Stephen Harper 'achieved', and support which interim leader Rona Ambrose grew for the party.
The Conservative leadership race and result may have produced a good candidate, but Canadians are leaving not flocking to the Conservative Party who claim huge numbers of members.
Great members (apparently) – weak public outreach based on leadership election process and vacuum left by Rona Ambrose who might have given Trudeau real trouble.
The complicated voting method of the Conservative leadership, the split outcome between Scheer and Bernier, and more than a little smoke (not 'Bubba Tuna'), over voting irregularities, leaves the Conservative Party possibly more threatened by the NDP than capable of taking on Justin Trudeau.
Peter Julian/New Democrats by Province: BC (43%), Alberta (14%), Saskatchewan (20%), Manitoba (18%), Ontario (17%), Quebec (16%), Atlantic Provinces (25%).
In BC there is great news. Behold a new King John Horgan to replace the Evil Queen Christy Clark – who doesn't want to give her throne or her vanity – but appears she must do. In order to make politics work in BC – she should go.
BC government & politics is well known to be very corrupt (the wild west indeed) and has long been, so anything is possible here. The Province of Ontario's ability to more quickly deal with real estate issues – at least as this is reflected in more authentic information coming out of real estate, in BC its difficult to know who is lying the very most.
Peter Julian has been given the leadership advantage of changing the power center of the New Democrats from Quebec to British Columbia, (or at least with a real opportunity to create one which might last a decade) while the goose hangs high in British Columbia and is slightly more cooked in Quebec.
Maxime Bernier/Libertarian Party by Province: BC (12%), Alberta (11%), Saskatchewan (9%), Manitoba (4%), Ontario (7%), Quebec (22%), Atlantic Provinces (6%).
Maxime Bernier cannot stay on with Conservative Party of Canada because of the close race with Andrew Scheer, his differing views on Supply Management issues and Bernier's own philosophy and ideology. If he does stay on...his career comes to a head and he must work the Conservative fields for leadership from the Prairies. No one of Bernier's political class in his right mind.. would find this a suitable choice.
Bernier and $20 to 30 million will realize 20 seats in the next Parliament – the only path away from a 2nd majority for Justin Trudeau whose hold on Visible Minorities is not expected to be relinquished anytime soon.
(Imagine a second Trudeau government where he, a Montreal Quebec MP (and potential Nobel Prize winner) – might administrate a minority government with the prop up of Maxime Bernier and the Libertarian of Party, also out of Quebec?)
Trudeau may stay hot, but his party does not – another look at liberalism – the old way through freedom and not suppression may break Trudeau's hold on majority government.
Frankly, the excitement of this possibility is nearly unbearable. I can see President Trump and the First Lady in Quebec City next Christmas – celebrating our great friendship and a sing song for US/Canada 'We Are (Now) The Greatest in the World.
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada top RSR ROBBINS poll at just over (35%) over all. Andrew Scheer and Conservative Party are < Reform/Canadian Alliance/Stock Day totals of the Turn of the Century (2000-2001).
Peter Julian and Federal Liberals are above (18%) across most of Canada, near that total in Ontario and Quebec, with solid (20%) or better in British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Atlantic Provinces with a major bump in support in British Columbia topping up their numbers to above (20%). ((6%) higher than mainstream polls offer).
BC is an emerging phenomenon for the provincial New Democrats, while in Saskatchewan, a lack of love for the government makes Conservatives and New Democrats the go to parties for White Canadians.
The Federal Greens are falling in support including in British Columbia (where Greens normally have their highest nationwide support).
That federal Green support and other support has moved to the provincial BC Greens (Andrew Weaver leader) recently contracted with BC New Democrats (John Horgan leader) to govern BC. BC New Democrat (Premier-elect) John Horgan who spent years out of town working as a logger and in forestry mills, will never be Sonia Fastenau on the environment, what he has in BC is lightning in a bottle for New Democrats across BC and Canada, a narrative native son Peter Julian – an intelligent and circumspect man – can use to attract Democrats, Greens and Liberals.
Elizabeth May head of the federal Greens, must see the writing on the wall here (if the numbers on her paycheck aren't too blinding). Her 'dear friend' Justin Trudeau can no longer be her ally in soft politics, - the NDP Green alliance is a horse already out of the barn. Those rich liberals with green tendencies – who don't like marching or other – may have to steady themselves to support someone other than Liberals.
I'll have lots of NDP with a hearty sprinkle of Greens please.
Maxime Bernier may not be known by most Canadians, but his name is familiar enough to many and when hooked up with the Libertarian Party of Canada, made attractive through the U.S. Presidential Election is ready, willing and able to change the face of politics in Canada. Maxime Bernier and Libertarian Party of Canada average nearly (20%) in British Columbia and Quebec.
(86%) of Bernier's support is from Caucasian Canadians.
In BC where the 'Liberal' brand there has become tarnished as a consequence of a general dislike of the Christy Clark (Justin Trudeau's government) - (federal Liberal PM's have average vote of about (27%) in BC historically). Following her return to politics about 2011 Christy Clark was first consort to Conservative PM (voted Canada's dullest human) – and then snuggled up to Justin when Steve was snuggling a doughnut at Tim Hortons'.
The NDP Green joint venture government heading for British Columbia (ED: unless something sneaky occurs – 50/50 on that), is against the Kinder Morgan pipeline, while Quebec's Premier Phillip Couillard is moving against this issue in Quebec (indirectly) through a request for review of existing Constitution (relating to Quebec's ongoing role in Canadian Confederation).
Agreement to govern in British Columbia, between provincial New Democrats and Greens, following the recent provincial general election- has raised the New Democrat label in a positive way (there). The New Democrat negative brand is not high in our opinion. There is opportunity {here} 'a plenty' to be mined (err under sharp regulation of course-but also with plenty of high paying jobs – we all agree then).
Utilizing Maxime Bernier and Libertarian Party of Canada (*Maxime Bernier is currently a Conservative MP with known Libertarian core) is important because of the problems associated with the recent Leadership Contest for the Conservative Party of Canada which resulted in a split between both (Andrew) Scheer and Bernier.
PR problems related to that leadership election outcome, which I believe involved questions of ballot irregularity -are not helpful in securing confidence of Canadians, as it reminds them of former PM Stephen Harper, who many might believe may or may not have entertained such accommodation to ensure a crafted outcome (a Statement made more to mark issues of control than malfeasance)– if this was it Bernier with promise wide berth in Quebec as Conservative, where Scheer's own totals are low -
they are sadly mistaken – terribly misguided and could have undone years of great effort by Rona Ambrose – cause ultimately for Glen P. Robbins “Determinism” of Maxime Bernier going forward as Libertarian – as Canadians have requested (a direction (direction) not an order).
Bernier in his capacity here as leader of the Libertarian Party of Canada causes Trudeau political harm in Quebec, British Columbia, & Ontario. Bernier causes Scheer trouble in BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Alberta—Quebec and most of all – potentially---all of Canada.
PM Trudeau and Liberals are popular with Visible Minorities @ (45%), but less so with Caucasians @ (33%). Andrew Scheer and Conservatives attract (16%) of Visible Minorities, and (29%) with Caucasians, equivalent to the support for President Trump in this poll.
Trudeau's particular benefit from this poll (despite the smaller support affected by the Maxime Bernier numbers) is that Visible Minorities in Toronto and Montreal support him nearly (50%).
If Bernier accepted the Libertarian Party of Canada leadership offer and took it success (which I declare these polling numbers to be – and a reasonably proper campaign were undertaken (without John Reynolds et al) – using Quebec lieutenants) – with the aforementioned $$ predicates – I would forecast a change in the political circumstance in Canada such that – PM Trudeau would win a 2nd term, but not a 2nd majority.
That is very Obama like, Justin Trudeau (Canada's 1st black pm) is de facto the President of Chinese, Filopino, Black, Iranian, Arabic, Indo Canadian, and others...(don't forget Italians – a hybrid seems to be of Visible Minority and Caucasian – but classified as Caucasian). Is a 'Spaniard' for instance – exclusively Caucasian?
Once read a historical account of Croatia – my wife's country of origin – and Dubrovnik, where she was born – some consider the most beautiful city in the World – they have record of Scottish type kilts (never investigated the veracity of this – but the source was good---French art, 'alot' of Western culture in its history – a long history – why would the EU not want this fabulous Caucasoid country in among it?
With all of the attention you want on Ukraine – reports that Russia's Putin wants the Eastern European countries back—wouldn't you want Croatia in the fold now – or are you that worried about Putin really?
U.S. policy espoused by many in Congress, particularly Senator John McCain, (one of my favourites). I agree the threat of sanctions should run parallel to the investigations in relation to the Election hacking – but the appearance of the tie between them seems amateurish, particularly when we consider what we lose if we continue this 'bitchfight' with Russia. And this is all this is – a 'bitchfight'.
The vision must not be lost in this but ultimate Secretary of State Tillerson – the right clean up hitter at the right time must have the room to help Russia grow – there are hundreds of billions of dollars of oil ready to go – the Secretary has been vetted on his former ties to oil, but frankly who gives a shit at this point in the race.
Peter Julian and New Democrats also attract (18%) support with Visible Minorities and (22%) support among Caucasians.
Maxime Bernier and Libertarians attract (2%) nationally of Visible Minorities and (12%) of Caucasian support.
I would conclude that the strong possibility looms that if Maxime Bernier does not run, the Liberals may have a chance at another slim majority in 2019 given the general level of support for Justin Trudeau and Liberals which minus Bernier and Libertarian Party is around (37.5%).
The BC political scene may de facto create NDP-Green contagion across the country, more as an alliance of greater utility than an embedded sense of principled devotion to all policies of each.
In this RSR ROBBINS Poll Trudeau (Liberal) and Scheer Conservative) enjoy the support of (60%) of Visible Minorities and (63%) of Caucasian support, while Julian (NDP) and Bernier (Libertarian) enjoy support of (25%) of Visible Minorities and (30%) of Caucasians.
Q 2
PM Trudeau is a self described Globalist – it might serve him well, but doesn't help his party much given that one in five are so self described. (Globalism currently looks more like a club than a belief system). When everyone knows huge wealth is hidden from taxation – they don't believe anything that isn't close to them or doesn't involve them, and don't have sufficient confidence in leaders to give them a blank check.
Nationalist and Communitarianist achieves (57%) combined with decided attracting nearly two in three respondents to it. Globalists are leaking support in Canada. “Their Leakers”.
Q 3
Global Warming has, in the last year and one half (since election of Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada to majority government), become less important than “Fighting Isis and Terrorism”.
Q 4
Seven in ten -'Decided' Canadians see Freedom of Speech as a “very important legal right”.
Q 5
A majority of Canadians most notably in British Columbia and Quebec reject “the Liberal Government of Canada having (sic) sole authority to force provinces like Quebec and British Columbia to accept pipelines”. Justin Trudeau has lost his political capital in BC, and the delays he is taking to deal with pipelines (Energy East) in his hometown of Quebec -will be sure to open up further opportunities for his opponents other than 'all oil all the time' Conservatives.
Q 6
Really varied among respondents by Province: British Columbia (31%) Yes, Alberta (72%), Saskatchewan (37%), Manitoba (34%), Ontario (39%), Quebec (23%), Atlantic Provinces (50%). “No”: British Columbia (67%), Alberta (28%), Saskatchewan (9%), Manitoba (53%), Ontario (45%), Quebec (72%), Atlantic Provinces (41%).
Justin Trudeau is already in serious political trouble in British Columbia – his support in BC's rural regions is in single digits in most pockets, and not much higher in others in the North and Interior. He does better in cities over 100,000, but is less than one half of Christy Clark's support over the exact same area. The Liberals and Conservatives in British Columbia have got to consider the tangled web they have weaved for themselves.
New Democrats with Green support can seize control of politics in British Columbia – and hold it for some time – if they are prudent, vigilant and courageous. Justin Trudeau can not afford the same political trouble occurring in the Province of Quebec where asserting pipeline rights from any decision out of Calgary Alberta will compel that province to act politically. Trudeau cannot avoid the Quebec pipeline (East) issue too long.
Following this..the National Energy Board will become under more serious criticism. A nation that cannot properly implement its Constitutional obligation under the Interest Act – and has put the entire real estate and housing market in jeopardy as a consequence ($1.3 trillion), has no business claiming propriety over oil and pipelines. This is government bad faith in the extreme. Having the Board's offices located in Calgary where oil is, is embarrassing.
Q 7
Based on Canadians (decided) support a temporary ban of immigration from any country, which openly sponsors terrorism. (48%) of Visible Minorities in BC support this temporary ban (like the US issue only more emphatic language), while only (33%) of Visible Minorities support the ban in Quebec.
A much higher percentage of Caucasians/White nationwide support such a ban.
This goes against everything the Liberals have been selling for a year and one half.
Immigration was popular when Canadians had to contend to former Conservative Stephen Harper who they disliked. It isn't nearly as popular an issue now.
Q 8
A very clear majority of Canadians would support bi lateral negotiations between Canada and the U.S. Why not? Germany is looking for a similar type agreement with Mexico.
Q 9
Well, we get the idea Canadians like freer trade.
Q 10
On balance, Canadians want smaller Federal government. They don't believe they get very good services anyhow so why pay for more of it? This provides additional evidence of opportunity for Maxime Bernier projected as Leader of the Libertarian Party of Canada.
Q 11
More than (90%) of those respondents polled had a response to this question – with former President Obama winning easily. What might be unexpected is the higher support for President Trump and the low support for Secretary Clinton.
I believe Obama attracts the most support because he is generally very well liked in Canada – and was a winner a two term President of the United States. Trump is a winner in this as Canadians like Americans are sneaking over to supporting him (and not telling all of the pollsters), and Secretary Clinton lost. She also didn't lose well, something that provoked similar anecdote among many Canadians who don't tolerate sore losers well.
I believe those supporting Maxime Bernier see Trump as Libertarian (by anecdote) – freedom seekers from government (but who are not anarchists) with (62%) of Bernier-Libertarian supporters choosing Trump. Here is the Million dollar (further) evidence – (81%) of Bloc Quebecois support Trump, while (9%) support Clinton and (10%) support Obama.
Sixty four percent of Trudeau Liberal supporters also support Barack Obama, while (27%) support Hillary Clinton, and yes – < (1%) support President Trump.
(Trump always sample higher as political actor/than politician).
Sixty five percent of Andrew Scheer/Conservatives also support Trump, while (21%) choose Obama, and (6%) support Hillary Clinton.
Fifty eight percent of New Democrats choose Obama, (29%) choose Clinton, and (7%) choose Trump.
Q 12
In mid term public opinion weather patterns “Female” candidates are experiencing a serious drop in confidence levels from the public (see Chantal Hebert in Toronto Star on subject of “Female” Liberal MP's). Part of this is a product of how shamefully they see Secretary Clinton behaving, English PM May failing in election. and the further evidence that this sentiment is united over many breakfast tables is the fact that (30%) of female respondents choose “Male” as response.
Canadians want talent and persons of serious merit making serious decisions for them, not actors and actresses –.
5,280 respondents - dial phones with some cell phones numbers (not consistent with any numbers relating to existing of #, usage etc. This is an old school poll.
Respondents say they are (1) Eligible to vote in Canadian Federal Elections, AND (2) Voted in the most recent Federal General Election, October 2015.
This RSR ROBBINS Poll features a Margin of Error of 1.35%, plus or minus, 95 times out of 100.
Poll was conducted May 28-June 29, 2015 using 3 sweeps of the country, with (1st) BC through to Quebec (see news reports and other to compare), (2nd) from Winnipeg Manitoba out to BC on the west and Atlantic Provinces on the East. (3rd) From Atlantic Provinces back to BC - with BC the last province contacts were made.
If an When readers see any form of bias in a question (its leading or pushing) often this is done on purpose - sometimes, a question requires re wording particular in a poll such as this with some thick tough questions which often require repeating-from (a) didn't get, (b) Official language.

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