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Pollster Glen P. Robbins calls John Horgan and BC New Democrats Christy Clark and BC Liberals
  May 08, 2017

Question #1
(Decided) Who do you currently support in this May 2017 BC Provincial Election?
John Horgan and BC New Democrats    44.6 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberal Party    41.4 %
Commentary
South Vancouver Island:
John Horgan & BC New Democrats-(45%) Christy Clark & BC Liberals-(27%)
North Vancouver Island:
John Horgan & BC New Democrats-(45.5%) Christy Clark & BC Liberals-(36%)
City of Vancouver:
John Horgan & BC New Democrats-(47%) Christy Clark & BC Liberals-(35%)
City of Burnaby:
John Horgan & BC New Democrats-(47%) Christy Clark & BC Liberals-(41%)
Tri-City:
John Horgan & BC New Democrats-(46%) Christy Clark & BC Liberals-(41%)
City of Surrey:
John Horgan & BC New Democrats-(45%) Christy Clark & BC Liberals-(43%)
City of Richmond:
Christy Clark and BC Liberals-(50%) John Horgan & BC New Democrats-(30%)
City of Delta:
John Horgan & BC New Democrats-(42%) Christy Clark & BC Liberals-(39%)
City of Chilliwack:
Christy Clark & BC Liberals-(45.5%) John Horgan & BC New Democrats-(36.5%)
Cities of Pitt Meadows/Maple Ridge/Mission:
John Horgan & BC New Democrats-(43.5%) Christy Clark and BC Liberals-(42%)
Langley City & Langley Township:
Christy Clark and BC Liberals-(53%) John Horgan and BC New Democrats-(29%)
City of New Westminster:
John Horgan & BC New Democrats-(50%) Christy Clark and BC Liberals-(31%)
City of Abbotsford:
Christy Clark and BC Liberals-(46%) John Horgan & BC New Democrats-(35%)
Northern Interior, Okanagan, Kootenay Region:
Christy Clark & BC Liberals-(44%) John Horgan & BC New Democrats-(42%)
Seat Allocation (Best Case Scenario):
John Horgan & BC New Democrats-Up 20 seats.
Likely Take-
Up to 12 seats.
Abject Failure:
John Horgan & BC New Democrats-less than 12 seat gain from BC Liberals
Abject Failure:
Christy Clark and BC Liberals-less than (39%) vote outcome.
(If May 9, 2017 goes NDP way)
Vancouver Island:
Up two seats Comox Valley, Parksville Qualicum
Lower Mainland (includes Fraser Valley to Hope):
Vancouver up (2), Burnaby up (1), Tri City up (1), Surrey up (1), Delta up (2), Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows/Mission up (2), North Vancouver up (1).
North Interior, Okanagan, Kootenay Region:
Boundary Similkameen, Cariboo Chilcotin, Cariboo North, Fraser Nicola, Kootenay East, Penticton, Shuswap.
BC Liberals (Best Case Scenario)
Burnaby Lougheed, Coquitlam, Delta,
Mainstreet Research has BC NDP [40%], & BC Liberals [39%]. Their regional character reflects "Greater Vancouver" where they show BC Liberals at 39%, BC NDP at 42%.
This Glen P. Robbins Pollster - represents outcomes for the whole of the Lower Mainland through to Hope as one number.
This difference is not better explained given Mainstreet's regional characterization as "Rest if BC". Although both Vancouver Island characterizations should be relatively constant.
Mainstream pollster - former Matador -Maggio- calls Rest of BC Liberal 48% and BC NDP 35%.
Mainstreet shows BC NDP on Vancouver Island at 45%, & BC Liberal at 29%.
{We} agree with Mainstreet regarding BC New Democrat support on Vancouver Island. We see BC Liberal support 2 points lower @ 27% in South Vancouver Island.
Mainstreet reflects BC NDP up 3 percent over BC Liberals in Greater Vancouver, Glen P. Robbins has the BC New Democrats up (2%)from Vancouver to Hope.
Mainstreet has BC Liberals at 48% and BC NDP at 35% in Rest of BC category.
Glen P. Robbins has BC Liberals at (44%) and BC NDP at (42%) in BC North-Interior-Kootenay.
The difference between Maggio and myself from my North Interior et al and his Rest of BC could be that we have different outcomes, mine more positive for the BC New Democrats than Mainstreet's, or Mainstreet is integrating Fraser Valley with Rest of BC (as assumed from his Greater Vancouver).
In any event I am declaring this Glen P. Robbins poll/survey, statistically improvised Margin of Error at (1.75%) for purposes of estimate. This is our impression of public opinion at this time reflecting our data (and other information) collection through May 2-6, 2017.

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