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Glen P. Robbins - RSR ROBBINS - 2017 BC Election Poll- Caucasians only-Sanders, Clinton, Trump, Horgan Democrat Clark Liberal (Trust & Confidence), Marijuana, Political Correctness
  Apr 25, 2017

Question #1
Which U.S. presidential candidate from these offered were you cheering on during the 2016 presidential election?
Bernie Sanders    32 %
Hillary Clinton    26 %
Donald Trump    23 %
Question #2
Which of the following “political market brands” best describes you?
Democrat    35 %
Liberal    26 %
Conservative    24 %
Green    12 %
Question #3
Would you like to see a change in government this May 9, 2017?
Yes    57 %
No    33 %
Undecided/Can't Answer    10 %
Question #4
You claim to have voted in the last provincial election), are you “certain” or “near certain” that you will vote in BC's general election May 9, 2017?
Yes    79 %
No    17 %
Undecided/Unsure/Can't Answer    6 %
Question #5
Do you support the recent announcement by the Government of Canada to legalize marijuana by next year (2018)?
Yes    54 %
No    35 %
Question #6
In process of announcing that the Canadian government will legalize marijuana, Liberal Justice Minister Jody Wilson Raybould announced that anyone who sells even a small amount of marijuana to someone underage will face criminal penalties of 14 years in prison. Do you support this criminal penalty in the circumstance described?
Yes    29 %
No    68 %
Question #7
Who do you (most) blame over Vancouver's real estate 'fiasco'? (your response choices are):
Christy Clark and BC Liberal Party    47 %
Justin Trudeau and Federal Liberal Party    19 %
Stephen Harper and Federal Conservative Party    10 %
I believe the real estate market is fine    22 %
Undecided    3 %
Question #8
True or False-(resp. speaking) “Compared to BC New Democrat leader John Horgan, I have the utmost confidence and trust in Christy Clark's leadership abilities”.
True    30 %
False    63 %
Undecided    7 %
Question #9
True or False “Compared to Christy Clark, I have the utmost confidence and trust in John Horgan's leadership abilities”.
True    42 %
False    39 %
Question #10
If you had to choose between only John Horgan's BC New Democrats or Christy Clark's BC Liberals, who would you choose {T}oday?
John Horgan's BC New Democrats    44 %
Christy Clark's BC Liberals    33 %
Question #11
What is your impression of political correctness and the use of such labels as “racist” or “ante semite” from the following response choices?
There is too much political correctness    60 %
It may be necessary for government to make sure people treat everyone with respect    24 %
Commentary
q 1
Our baseline question is essentially an “Entertainment” question, given these American politicians for President have nothing to do with a provincial election British Columbia. However, the 'new world order' of commerce figures heavily on branding, including particularly niche branding and politics is no exception to this rule, and may yet redefine how its operates, particularly through the Trump era.
These three presidential candidates: Hillary Clinton, (President) Donald Trump & Bernie Sanders all have known brands attracting a response rate of (80%) among British Columbians insofar as a choice among the three is made by British Columbians. Undecided/Can't Answer was not offered.
Our RSR ROBBINS U.S. Presidential polling in 2016 revealed a better than 90% immediate name recognition for Hillary Clinton and slightly less for candidate Donald Trump (a circumstance that has obviously changed). Citizen Trump attracted about 20,000,000 viewers to his show “The Apprentice” and nearly 60,000,000 Americans as voters. The Clinton Trump brands are two of the most famous brands in the world.
The (71%) (Decided) total of Clinton-Sanders may be reasonably presumed to be known to be Democrat-Liberal for hypothetical purpose.
The (29%) total of Donald Trump may be reasonably presumed to be Republican Conservative.
q 2
In our second baseline question (which better aligns with political affairs in BC politics), the Democrat Liberal 'branding' combination is (61%) of (97%) or {63%}.
The Conservative Liberal combination (thinking of the BC Liberal 'branding') attracts (50%) support of (97%) or {49%}. Advantage Democrat Liberal by {14%} based on a cumulative total of {'112%'}.
The Democrat Liberal brand achieves a higher total statistically at net {48.5%-50%}. The Liberal Conservative brand statistically is {42.01%-43.3%}. An averaging concludes the Democrat Liberal brand is {49.25%}, while the Liberal Conservative is {42.67%}.
Obviously, these numbers cannot explain the (12%) support for Green label as the total of the Liberal Democrat and Liberal Conservatives average totals to {91.92%} support (we are short {3%}) (and haven't considered the (3%) of respondents who are not accounted for in the projected outcomes.
To account for the “Green” label deficiency we realize using (100%) total we have Liberal Democrat at {47.35%} and Liberal Conservative at {41.02%}. Now for the missing (3%). The Liberal Democrats come out of the figuring at {48.8%}. The Liberal Conservatives at {42.25%}. In context of these numbers Greens would be {12.36%} for total of {'103.41%'}.
I estimate support for “Liberal Democrat” brand at {47.18%}, for “Liberal Conservative” brand at {40.86%} with Green brand @ or about {12%}.
q 3
This question as general as it may be and without reference to “BC” – and how frequently it is asked by pollsters, garnering the same or near same results as mainstream polls [60%] reflecting wanting change, reveals (62%) of Decided respondents want change of government, leaving (38%) who do not or are Undecided about it.
q 4
(93%) of respondents who support “Democrat” brand are “certain or near certain” to vote. (86%) of respondents who support “Liberal” brand are “certain or near certain” to vote, while only (67%) of respondents supporting “Conservative” brand are “certain or near certain” to vote.
(73%) of Green supporters are “certain or near certain” to vote.
If we factor the percent of brand support who are “certain or near certain to vote” by support for brand, Democrats net out at {33%}, Liberals at {21%}, Conservatives at {16%}, and Greens at {9%} or {79%} of total.
In context of this question, the Democrat Liberal brand combination totals{54%}, while the Liberal Conservative brand totals {37%}.
q 5
On this question (62%) of “Democrat” supporters, (57%) of “Liberal” supporters, (37%) of Conservative supporters and (73%) of Green supporters, all support the Government of Canada announcement legalizing marijuana 'next year'.
This represents {61%} Decided voters, a number not inconsistent with our previous poll on legalizing marijuana in Canada, where that question offered an inducement of achieving a 20% tax to be directed to paying down debt.
The question in this RSR ROBBINS poll had no such inducement but achieved nearly the same 'positive' outcome two weeks later.
q 6
In this question, the federal Liberal Attorney General attracts (30%) Decided support for a 14 year sentence for selling 'a small amount of marijuana'.
Support for Liberal proposal of very stiff sentences for selling “even a small amount of marijuana to someone underage” though much lower in overall support than for marijuana, is higher overall than support for the “Liberal” or “Conservative” brands considered on an individual basis, attracting support from all parties.
Support for massive almost ludicrous and humiliating jail time (see “fiasco”), for selling even small amounts to underage people is 'constituted' as follows: (21%) support “Democrat”, (29%) “Liberal”, (46%) “Conservative”, (9%) “Green”.
q 7
Our provocation question – Vancouver real estate 'fiasco' is a push question and should be seen as such. It asserts an opinion of the Vancouver real estate scene characterizing it as a “fiasco”, a noun, describing something that is a complete failure, “especially in a ludicrous or humiliating way”.
Push question or not it will likely define any loss for the BC Liberals, particularly if that loss occurs in a humiliating way, such as the BC Greens coming second or just a BC New Democrat landslide win.
It highlights the overt relationship between the BC Liberals and a general sense from British Columbians that they are corrupt, and are unduly influenced by donors, friend, associates and unaware of the real needs of the population.
Spreading the blame for the so called Vancouver's real estate fiasco attracts blame from all brands. Blame is projected across a spectrum of > (75%).
If random (20%) is considered at {100%} then Christy Clark and BC Liberal Party attracts {'235%'} of blame. If we extend the governing BC Liberals (the only major BC party included as respondent) at {50%} [one of two major parties], than we have a speculative extrapolation of blame as against Christy Clark and BC Liberal Party at {55%}.
If both provincial and federal Liberal brands are combined than (63%) of Liberal brand is to blame with random combined at (40%). This produces an outcome with random of (40%) made 100% of {'157%'}.
With the Liberal brand occupying (50%) of the BC Election (major parties only) this produces a speculative blame against the federal/provincial Liberal brand of {78.5%}.
Averaged, we have {62.5%}'speculated blame' against both “provincial and federal Liberal brands” for the Vancouver real estate fiasco.
This suggests to me that the change is erupting in British Columbia away from known government brands like “Liberal” and “Conservative” – and in my wildest imagination – suggests that both the 2015 federal election – where Tom Mulcair and federal New Democrats were very nearly great – and the U.S. Election has installed a sense of purpose and support for social Libertarians like Bernie Sanders here in BC.
Who best represents a social libertarian – John Horgan or Christy Clark?
q 8
Christy Clark has a problem, a serious one. Slightly more than 3 in 10 (Decided) British Columbians “have utmost confidence and trust in (her) leadership abilities”.
Most British Columbians appear to have lost confidence in her. There are too many deep cuts against her, she is bleeding, not profusely, at least not yet, and voters are now turning to change, likely in combination to the lack of confidence in the Premier and a belief that the BC Liberal brand is simply out of gas, or running on gas alone (intended reference to donors).
q 9
John Horgan is in pretty lethal shape, although he is not as well known as Christy Clark, he is getting known very quickly, as British Columbians slowly turn to their attention to the election. He has over (40%) in 'the bag', a number which could rise sharply even if only one third of “Undecided” decide to support him.
q 10
John Horgan and BC Democrats by region: Vancouver Island (45%), Lower Mainland (largest) (45%), North and Interior (38%)
Christy Clark and BC Liberals by region: Vancouver Island (23%), Lower Mainland (35%), BC North and Interior (38%).
q 11
(89%) of respondents who support “Conservative” brand support the response choise “there is too much political correctness”. (62%) of “Democrat” brand support this choice, while (56%) of Liberals and (53%) of “Green” label support it.
Clearly British Columbians are inclined to support American politicians in the Democrat Party like their American cousins in Washington State currently do. Bernie Sanders who lost to Hillary Clinton for the Democrat nomination is most popular in British Columbia.
This is consistent with q 2 on well known political brands where the Democrat brand is more popular with Liberal and Conservative brand about tied in support an estimated (10%) lower than Democrat.
Currently more British Columbians who support “Democrat” and “Liberal” brands are more inclined to vote in this election, than those who declare themselves as “Conservative” or “Green”.
The Conservatives have not mounted a campaign of any note, and although there is plenty of polling suggesting the Greens are surging in some areas, this may be more likely an outcome of federal Liberals inserting themselves in the BC Campaign as Greens, than a solidified “Green” only venture.
Sixty percent of Caucasian British Columbians want a change in government while one in three do not.
Legalizing marijuana is supported by at least one in two British Columbians and rejected by one in three. Sending people to jail for 14 years for selling a joint to someone underage is supported by 3 in 10 British Columbians and rejected by the rest.
This 14 years has been suggested to be the equivalent of the average sexual assault sentence. It has also been overtly suggested (mostly by Caucasian women) that sexual assault sentences 'aren't prosecuted so why would we believe this from the Liberals'?
Nearly 8 in 10 British Columbians believe by inference that the Vancouver real estate market is a “fiasco”. Most of these respondents believe two things about it. The government(s) in charge provincially and federally are to blame, and those Governments mostly blamed follow a Liberal brand.
On “trust and confidence” John Horgan compared to Christy Clark has a (12%-17%) lead.
Based on this RSR ROBBINS poll I would assess the following theories based on the evidence. The first is that John Horgan and the BC New Democrats will achieve over (40%) support for certain.
The second is that although the BC Liberals in the most positive light currently might hit (40%), it is unlikely they will achieve the vote they achieved in 2013 provincial election [44%].
The third hypothesize-conjecture I would advance is that if the BC Greens make a serious breakthrough in BC – it will be more likely that BC Liberals will suffer as a consequence.
This is an RSR ROBBINS Hybrid poll-survey with margin of error declared by estimate and rounded at (2.5%) plus or minus. This poll-survey was conducted April 19-24, 2017 and includes only Caucasian voters/respondents. The telephone and not the internet was used to produce these outcomes. This research is proprietorial to RSR ROBBINS and Glen P. Robbins.

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