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RSR poll US Election - Arizona on my mind - Trump with double digit lead over Clinton.
  Nov 05, 2016

Question #1
On this day I generally describe my political loyalties as follows:
Republican    35 %
Democrat    29 %
Independent    26 %
Question #2
Which candidate from the choices offered do you support for President today (support includes any vote caste to date)? (raw support)
Donald Trump    49 %
Hillary Clinton    39 %
Other Candidate    5.5 %
Undecided    7 %
Question #3
Which candidate from the choices offered do you support for President today? (decided support)
Donald Trump    52 %
Hillary Clinton    42 %
Question #4
Which reported issue from the choices offered troubles you more?
Donald Trump's negative issues involving women    30 %
Hillary Clinton's issues with the FBI    63 %
Question #5
What is your current impression of The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act aka Obamacare?
Positive    35 %
Negative    55 %
Commentary
Both Republican and Democratic brands are losing some luster among “likely voters/voters” in Arizona with both party brands off (10%) or more. Even the Independent brand is off somewhat.
Donald Trump is below the 53.48% Mitt Romney achieved in 2012 (down 6.5%), but far ahead of Hillary Clinton who is off (17%) from Barack Obama's 2012 total of 44.58%.
As RSR discovered in our national poll prior to the most recent FBI bombshell a week ago, persons in the age groups 18-24, 25-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-64 and 65 + are not supporting in every category except 30-39 where RSR has her at (40%) up from 37% in 2012.
Through age groups 18-29 representing 26% of population Hillary Clinton is down State wide (5%) explaining most of the overall depreciation from the Obama Election Outcome. Hillary is down (5%) among those aged 40-49, down (3%) in the 50-64 age group and among the oldest group 65+ she is down (4%). The Undecided group is (5%) through the 40-65+ age group, while Undecided among those aged 18-30 averages (15%). Those aged 30-39 reveal an Undecided of (2%).
Both the very young and the very old are backing away from Hillary Clinton either directly or as a consequence of their indecision over supporting her.
Donald Trump gains (1%) State wide from those persons aged 18-30 but loses (1%) State wide from aged group 30-39 and 40-49 and another (2%) State wide from age group 50-64+ following some adjustment for turnout.
The FBI announcement of last week coupled with news of rate hikes 'all a twitter' in the news has crushed Hillary Clinton's opportunity for any success in the State of Arizona.
The general problem for Hillary Clinton is not Donald Trump, it is herself. Her campaign has attempted to classify Donald Trump as a sex offender, a depiction that slightly more than one in four Arizonians are willing to support. But Secretary Clinton's real problem is the FBI announcement and the sense from most respondents that more is yet to come, with anecdote strongly suggesting none of it will be positive.
Respondents appear to perceive the personal sex matters associated with Donald Trump's campaign as the only thing Hillary Clinton has on him, and by the low Undecided see it as less worrisome than her troubles with the FBI. Clinton's campaign advisers failed her on this account, but ultimately she is responsible for believing she had the Election in the bag.
Issues with increases to Obamacare rates may be hyberbolic in terms of actual persons affected, but they are true enough and will bear fruit as companies leave the system in Arizona creating a monopoly with anticipated significant increase to occur as a consequence, impacting negatively on the consciousness of citizens of Arizona who are just becoming comfortable with affordability, the ability to make major purchases like houses or motor vehicles.
The result is a loss of confidence in this traditional Republican stronghold.
There is a growing confidence among many respondents in Donald Trump's message of Making American Great again – which most believe to be associated with his message of creating more jobs and making the economy successful.
Arizonians tell RSR they don't want anymore gridlock in Washington DC and believe Trump to be the one to use the Office of President of the United States as a bully pulpit to get things moving. Trump's support among those respondents who claim to be Republican (94%), (60%) of Independents and (54%) of those who do not identify in any group make up an original composite of support for him which may enable a type of presidential activism.
Hillary Clinton's troubles with the FBI (whatever those may or may not be) are such that Arizonians are not taking chances betting by the time the investigation is done, the news won't be good (is it ever good news when the FBI is investigating), ready to give Donald Trump a clean slate and an opportunity to make good on his promises. One respondent characterized moving her support for Obama in 2012 to Trump as “a leash, not a short one, but a leash at least”.
On September 1, 2016 Sam Frizell of Time wrote: “Hillary Clinton is starting a daring war against Donald Trump with a six figure advertising buy in the traditionally red state of Arizona.” “Clinton's advertising buy will initially be six figures and feature the ad “Role Models” which shows children watching some of Trump's more incendiary comments.”
On October 25, 2016 CNN news agency reported a Monmouth University Poll “which shows Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton separated by 1 percentage point...Trump has 46% support in the state, with Clinton right behind him at 45%.” “The Monmouth poll also shows (John McCain) holding (sic) a 10 point lead over (Ann) Kirkpatrick with 50% support (for McCain).
In the week or following the FBI announcement, pronouncements of rate increases to Obamacare, and the release of the Monmouth poll just days before, it is apparent that Donald Trump will win Arizona and he may do so easily. Were Hillary Clinton's ad buys in Arizona wishful thinking following her husband Bill's big win there in 1996, or was it bluff?
Which other 'swing states' will be affected in this way by the FBI announcement as well as increases to medical premiums?
A digit dialing RSR poll (adjusted) (weighted) to accord with historical voting patterns by ethnic group (adjusted for increases and decreases to ethnic background as well as overall adjustments to gender) of 832 likely voters/voters in Arizona with overlapping Strategic Calling occurring in Maricopa Countie(s) (Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale) with additional focus (adjusted) on Wickenburg and Cave Creek (annual earnings), Tucson and Yuma conducted October 30-November 4, 2016. The Margin of Error claimed is 3.36%, 95% confidence level with Donald Trump's probability of a lead over Hillary Clinton 99%.

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