Robbins SCE Research
Home| British Columbia Polls| Canada Polls| US & the World Polls| Contact| Register| Search| Donate
RSR ROBBINS - The Platinum Standard - U.S. Presidential - August 2016 Survey
  Aug 07, 2016

Question #1
Which political brand from the following 3 choices provided do you support right now?
Democrat    41 %
Republican    33 %
Independent    21 %
Question #2
Would you seriously consider supporting a third party candidate for President?
Yes    21 %
No    72 %
Undecided (offered)    7 %
Question #3
If you were paid $100 'consideration' under contract to produce a vote for one of the following respondent choices today which one of the following would it be?
Hillary Clinton, Democrat    40 %
Donald Trump, Republican    39 %
Gary Johnson, Libertarian    8 %
Bernie Sanders write in Independent    7 %
Jill Stein, Green Party    5 %
Question #4
Which of the following candidates for President for the two main parties, the Democrats and Republicans, do you support right now, if you had to choose one and not reject both?
Hillary Clinton    43 %
Donald Trump    40 %
Question #5
Which of the following issues is MOST important to you right now?
Jobs and the Economy    32 %
National Security    28 %
Education, Health and development of local communities    25 %
The Environment and Global Warming    14 %
Question #6
Which of the following response choices BEST reflects what you want in your next President?
I want someone who understands Washington DC and knows how to get things done    38 %
I want someone from outside Washington DC prepared to make change to gridlock and to federal politics generally    56 %
Commentary
In question 1 of this RSR ROBBINS Platinum August Survey from lists of previous surveys on May 19, 2016, & July 9, 2016 (over 2,000 each), as well as the survey portion of survey/poll of July 26, 2016 we ask Americans "Which political brand from the following 3 choices do you support right now'?
Outcomes from this RSR Survey reveal Democrats (41%), Republicans (33%) and Independent (21%), a total of (95%) of respondents choosing one of the three.
In our RSR ROBBINS Survey from May 19, 2016 we asked respondents "Which political party best describes you today?", (a little bit different approach). Outcomes were Democrats (39%), Republicans (26%), and Independents (22%), a total of (87%) choosing one of those three 'political identities'.
In just under 3 months from question relating to "political brand" which "describes you" to "do you support right now" and where only Democrat, Republican, & Independent brands were offered as response choice(s) the "Democrat" "political brand" has moved upward only slightly from (39%) to (41%) and increase of (5%) over the time period.
Over the same period of time the "Republican" "political brand' has increased from (26%) to (33%) an increase upward of nearly (27%).
The "Independent" "political brand" has decreased from (22%) at May 19, 2016 to (21%) a decrease of (5%).
Overall, the selection of one of the three "political brands" has increased from (87%) (with 13% Undecided, or unable to select a response choice provided), to (95%) with (5%) Undecided.."
Neither of these two questions included Libertarian or Green choices.
Question 2 asks "Would you seriously consider supporting a third party candidate for President?" The outcomes reveal a (21%) "Yes" and (72%) "No".
From May 2016 "Would you seriously consider supporting a third party candidate for President?" Outcomes reveal (31%) "Yes" and (51%) "No".
Over the nearly 3 month period from May 19, 2016 to August 7, 2016 the percentage of respondents who would 'seriously consider supporting a third party candidate for President' has moved from "Yes" (31%) to "Yes" (21%) a decrease of (32%).
In question 3 we strive to push respondents through 'contract' to make a selection from 5 response choice(s) including Bernie Sanders as a write in "Independent". "If you were paid $100 'consideration' under contract to produce a vote for one of the following response choices (not candidates) which one of the following would it be?"
Hillary Clinton, Democrat (40%), Donald Trump, Republican (39%), Gary Johnson, Libertarian (8%), Bernie Sanders, write in Independent (7%), Jill Stein, Green Party (5%)
From our July 9, 2016 RSR ROBBINS poll/survey: "Which of the following candidates for President of the United States from the following choices offered do you currently support?" Donald Trump (31%), Hillary Clinton (31%), Bernie Sanders (14%), Gary Johnson (11%) and Jill Stein (3%).
Over the one month period of time in questions differently configured to ascertain support for the same 5 respondents offered for President we find that Donald Trump has increased support from (35%) to (39%), an increase of (10%).
Hillary Clinton has increased support over the same period of time from (31%) to (40%) an increase of (39%).
Bernie Sanders has decreased support from (14%) to (7%), a decrease of (50%) but with * that the outcomes were induced on the basis of write in Independent, and not as a Democrat.
Libertarian Party leader Gary Johnson has gone from (11%) support to (8%) a decrease of (27%), while Jill Stein has gone from (3%) support to (5%), an increase of (67%).
Question 4 asks "Which of the following candidates for President of the two main parties, the Democrats and Republicans, do you support right now if you had to choose one and not reject both?" Outcomes reflect support for Hillary Clinton (43%) and Donald Trump (40%).
Five months ago we asked U.S. "Voters" "Which of the following two candidates for President of the United States do you support more at this time? Donald Trump (Republican) (38%), Hillary Clinton (Democrat) (35.5%). The question was presented adjusted for national ethnic/gender "realities") with Hillary Clinton (Democrat) (37%) and Donald Trump (Republican) (36.5%)
In late July 2016 following the Republican convention we asked" "If you had to select from either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump for President today who would you support?" Donald Trump (48%), Hillary Clinton (41%) - adjusted for 2012 actual ethnic backgrounds (ethnic voters were showing a lower inclination to come out and vote following Republican convention) Donald Trump (46%) Hillary Clinton (43%).
Thoughts relating to Survey outcomes:
Over a period of 5 months Donald Trump has consistently produced support of (39%).
Post Republican convention in a mix of Survey of past Voters and poll he scored as high as (48%) on the basis of African American and Latino voters indicating they would turnout at lower percentages than in the U.S. Presidential election in 2012. This (48%) adjusted for 2012 turnouts was reduced to (46%).
So we see that Donald Trump running a campaign as he pleases hold (39%) to (40%) base. Donald Trump in a "convention script" involving his family and himself acting more presidential rising to about (46%) to (47%).
Donald Trump's "Decided" support from March 1, 2016 is (47%) while Hillary Clinton's was (46%).
Donald Trump's "Decided" support from this Survey is (47%) while Hillary Clinton's is (50%).
Donald Trump's base support has consistently been above the support for his Republican Party, although support for the Republican political brand is increasing while support for the Democrat political brand is not.
In head to head match ups involving 5 candidate offerings including Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton representing their respective parties we see that Hillary Clinton has gone from (31%) to (40%) an increase as mentioned of (9%) and Donald Trump has gone from (35%) to (39%).
Gary Johnson Libertarian and Bernie Sanders (as write in Independent herein) have been the losers over the past 3 weeks, while Jill Stein has been a modest but very noteworthy winner.
On balance, Hillary Clinton has increased more Donald Trump, but only by the margin of error, and the fact that Donald Trump is consistenly scoring just under (40%) support.
Job and the Economy and National Security grab the largest numbers of respondents supporting these two issues as most important, while a clear majority of respondents desire an outsider from Washington.
Based on general assumptions that Hillary Clinton is more the Washington insider than Donald Trump, and the fact that Bernie Sanders 'write ins' for Independent want an outsider, this could tend to weigh on Hillary's (43%) pulling her down.
Donald Trump is generally seen to be better on jobs and the economy but national security is likely even despite Hillary Clinton's glaring deficiencies in this area offset by Donald Trump's state of mind in dealing with the issue.
Many of the Gary Johnson, Bernie Sanders and Jill Stein supporters have eduation health and the community in common with Democrats. Hillary Clinton can offset her Washington Insider branding by adorning herself in this issue which may come easier to her than Donald Trump save that most of the people picking this issue seem to be the protestors or disaffected.
Hillary Clinton has to keep her eye on Jill Stein the Green Party candidate. Stein is closer to Gary Johnson in our Survey than she is in mainstream polling and has a more conspicuous issue with some grab, the environment (14%), not bad considering the compulsion in media to speak about national security and jobs. Gary Johnson does not possess a natural issue save education health and communities. Taking this issue up as a proponent of smaller federal government may cut into Hillary's capacity to grow and may take more of the remaining Bernie Sanders political carcass, while Jill Stein takes the remainder.
It is becoming increasingly likely that neither Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will win over 50% 'plus' of the popular vote, and the top end may well be (44% to 45%).
If this is the case, then how might this affect state races which ultimately decide who will be President?
A Survey of 1,014 respondents from an RSR ROBBINS list of of over 2,000 (May, 2016) with modest adjustments. This Survey occurred from August 1 to August 6, 2016 and produces a margin of error of 3.13% plus or minus. Hillary has an 86% probability of lead.

Home| British Columbia Polls| Canada Polls| US and the World Polls| Contact| Register| Search| Site Map
Copyright Robbins SCE Research Inc. ©2017