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Canadians 'think' they do not follow polls-This sample see potential Conservative-NDP majority
  Jun 10, 2004

This random telephone survey of 10 Canadian provinces including British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador was conducted between June 7-11, 2004 by regular and computerized telephone. The respondents totalled 2,050 however this survey should be considered to be accurate within 2.2%, 19 times out of 20 @ 98% competency. In Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador, only urban environments were used for calling, including Regina, Saskatoon, Brandon, Winnipeg, Montreal, St John's, Halifax, Dartmouth, Charlottetown, and Saint John's

Question #1
How many eligible voters live at your residence?
Average    2.33 %
Question #2
For which political party did you cast your vote in the last federal general election?
Progressive Conservatives    13.1 %
Bloc Quebecois    11.60 %
New Democrats    9.1 %
Liberals    39.9 %
Canadian Alliance    23.70 %
Question #3
Which statement best reflects your attitude toward political polling of public opinion as it relates to inflluencing your vote?
I watch polling results closely and consider them in my overall decision making    3.30 %
If I read, hear or watch a poll result it doesn't affect or influence my own voting strategy    11.90 %
I don't even notice polls    80.20 %
Question #4
If the federal election were being held tomorrow for which leader and party would you cast your vote?
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party    33.60 %
Paul Martin and federal Liberal party    31.50 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois    13.20 %
Jack Layton and NDP    18.80 %
Question #5
Would you accept a Conservative-NDP 'minority coalition' as your federal government?
Yes    56.5 %
No    40.1 %
Commentary
The majority of Canadians like to think that they are not influenced by polling, and most as this poll 'suggest' are not. This poll does reveal however that polling can influence outcomes in a close election. Party choices (as one might expect) are very fluid between respondent voting patterns vis-a-vis 2000, and respondent choices 'in an election tomorrow'.
Is this voter 'swapping' finished? Martin's federal liberal totals appear dependant on much of the 2000 Progressive Conservative vote. If these votes were with Stephen Harper his Conservatives would how have 132-138 seats instead of the 124 this poll suggests.
It appears that the Progressive Conservatives have not pulled their weight on the merger with the Canadian Alliance. However, Premier Lord did allude to more pro-active choices in the area of health care which is resonating with voters. Canadians are aware of the health care realities, and don't believe the monies allocated are spent wisely. The message on health car is more, isn't necessarily better.

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