Robbins SCE Research
Home| British Columbia Polls| Canada Polls| US & the World Polls| Contact| Register| Search| Donate
RSR ROBBINS over Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Provinces
  Sep 28, 2015

Question #1
Which of the following leaders and party would you vote for in an election were held today?
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    37.72 %
Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    34.02 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    24.04 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois Party    4.14 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    3.19 %
Undecided/No Opinion/Unsure/Can't Answer    8 %
Question #2
Which of the following circumstances annoys you the most?
Muslim women covering their face at citizenship ceremonies    6.64 %
Lousy, selfish, or reckless automobile drivers    11.22 %
A unbalanced federal budget    13.09 %
Canada's escalating debt under the Conservative government    18.24 %
Escalating personal debt of Canadians    20.09 %
What the legal requirements are for Quebec to separate    7.24 %
Canada's falling dollar, weak economy, and low oil price    16.82 %
Undecided/Can't Answer    6.54 %
Commentary
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada support is as follows: Ontario (41%), Quebec (26%), Atlantic Provinces (45%). Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada support is as follows: Ontario (25%), Quebec (44%), Atlantic Provinces (30%). Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada is as follows: Ontario (31%), Quebec (11%) and Atlantic Provinces (19%).
The Niqab issue is a non issue to 2011 voters from Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Provinces. Quebec is the highest at (11%) out of 8 response choices including Undecided/Can't Answer. The Niqab is nearly one half of random. “Lousy, selfish or reckless automobile drivers” are at random.
The issue of the legal requirements for Quebec to separate is slightly higher than one half of random with Quebec at (16%). The Niqab and legal requirements for separation are relatively unimportant to 2011 Canadian voters from the 2011 general federal election. As the foreign policy debate occurs during this Canadian election the importance of the Niqab or Quebec sovereignty relative to money and the economy is fairly declared as irrelevant. Is this the most manipulated election in Canadian history?
Four of the 'annoying' response choices relate to money or economy and inclusive of Undecided/Can't Answer are five of eight in total making random 62.5% A unbalanced federal deficit at (13.09%) is (20.94%) of total meaning one in five respondents finds an unbalanced budget most annoying. (21.98%) of respondents, one third more than who are annoyed at an unbalanced federal budget are bothered by “Canada's escalating debt”. One in three Canadians are concerned about “escalating personal debt of Canadians.” More than one in four Canadians on matters relating to money and economy are concerned about Canada's “falling dollar, weak economy and low oil prices”.
An unbalanced budget is the last of Canadians concerns compared to escalating federal debt, person debt the falling dollar, weak economy and low oil prices.
If the percentage of national vote remaining after Greens, Bloc take their share of votes is estimated at 92.5%. The average in a three way split is 30.8%. I believe it is reasonable to suggest that in these circumstances (34%) ought to win a slight minority government. Based on these numbers in Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador is appears that among the big three national parties, Justin Trudeau has the best chance of forming government, with Tom Mulcair second and Stephen Harper third place.
Stephen Harper's Conservatives are not popular in “Old Stock” Canada. They are known to be historically popular on the Prairies including Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba representing less than 20% of the Canadian population and British Columbia representing slightly more than 10% of the population. The combined population (“hereinafter the West”) is nearly one third of the national population. The numbers of support for Stephen Harper's Conservatives in the Province of British Columbia have been shown to be consistently below the mid 40% they obtained in the 2011 federal general election.
Based on these RSR ROBBINS numbers Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada would require (50%) plus average in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and the Atlantic Provinces in order to achieve the (34%) national average which we believe is necessary to form minority government. It is doubtful based on these numbers in Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces that Stephen Harper will achieve (34%) and is unlikely to form government.
Tom Mulcair and the New Democratic Party of Canada will require (35%) in “the West” to achieve the national average. If the New Democratic numbers remain near (40%) or better in British Columbia they will then require about (32%) average voter support from Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba to attain (34%).
Methodology: From private lists of RSR ROBBINS survey of voters from 2011 Canadian general federal election. The total participating numbers is 2.345 conducted between September 21 and 27, 2015. Adjustments are taken on best efforts to correspond to 2011 general federal election outcomes as baseline from lists to provincial vote in respective provinces of Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador. The Margin of Error is 2.02% meaning we believe that as at this date in this election in the Provinces of Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Provinces Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada is (36-40%) support, while Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party is (32%-36%) with Stephen Harper in 3rd place at (22-26%). Undecided/Can't Answer are NOT factored by initial party but are grouped as one entity for calculation purposes and could affect overall amounts.

Home| British Columbia Polls| Canada Polls| US and the World Polls| Contact| Register| Search| Site Map
Copyright Robbins SCE Research Inc. ©2017