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RSR ROBBINS - National Survey of 2011 voters for 42nd Canadian Election
  Aug 06, 2015

Question #1
If the federal election were held today which leader and party would get your vote (adjusted)?
Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    35.51 %
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    29.64 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    27.51 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    5.81 %
Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois Party    2.12 %
Other    0.62 %
Undecided/Don't know    6.77 %
Question #2
What is your current opinion of your provincial government in terms of positive negative impressions from these response choices? (British Columbia) (totals decided/100%)
Very Positive    7 %
Positive    18 %
Negative    50 %
Very Negative    25 %
Undecided/Don't know    9 %
Question #3
What is your current opinion of your provincial government in terms of positive negative impressions from these response choices?(Alberta)
Very Positive    26 %
Positive    38 %
Negative    26 %
Very Negative    10 %
Undecided/Don't know    8 %
Question #4
What is your current opinion of your provincial government in terms of positive negative impressions from these response choices?(Saskatchewan)
Very Positive    24 %
Positive    41 %
Negative    23 %
Very Negative    11 %
Undecided/Don't know    14 %
Question #5
What is your current opinion of your provincial government in terms of positive negative impressions from these response choices? (Manitoba)
Very Positive    11 %
Positive    21 %
Negative    26 %
Very Negative    43 %
Undecided/Don't know    9 %
Question #6
What is your current opinion of your provincial government in terms of positive negative impressions from these response choices? (Ontario)
Very Positive    18 %
Positive    25 %
Negative    35 %
Very Negative    22 %
Undecided/Don't know    14 %
Question #7
What is your current opinion of your provincial government in terms of positive negative impressions from these response choices? (Quebec)
Very Positive    18 %
Positive    50 %
Negative    21 %
Very Negative    11 %
Undecided/Don't know    8 %
Question #8
What is your current opinion of your provincial government in terms of positive negative impressions from these response choices? (New Brunswick)
Very Positive    12 %
Positive    34 %
Negative    28 %
Very Negative    26 %
Undecided/Don't know    11 %
Question #9
What is your current opinion of your provincial government in terms of positive negative impressions from these response choices? (Nova Scotia)
Very Positive    22 %
Positive    36 %
Negative    21 %
Very Negative    22 %
Undecided/Don't know    12 %
Question #10
What is your current opinion of your provincial government in terms of positive negative impressions from these response choices? (Newfoundland and Labrador)
Very Positive    24 %
Positive    41 %
Negative    13 %
Very Negative    21 %
Undecided/Don't know    17 %
Question #11
Is racism a problem in Canada?
Yes    42 %
No    46 %
Undecided/Don't know    12 %
Question #12
Is Global Warming a problem requiring immediate attention?
Yes    59 %
No    30 %
Undecided/Don't know    11 %
Question #13
Do you agree or disagree with this statement? It is my opinion that marijuana is NOT more dangerous than alcohol?
Yes    53 %
No    31 %
Undecided/Don't know    16 %
Question #14
Which of these two issues requires the most attention in Canada today?
Jobs and the Economy    52 %
Global Warming and creating a new sustainable economy    47 %
Undecided/Don't know    7 %
Question #15
Which of the following federal leaders do you believe would perform best in solving social problems including for instance, poverty or racism in Canada?
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    41 %
Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    31 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    17 %
Other/Undecided    11 %
Question #16
Which of the following federal leaders do you believe would perform best in solving problems relating to global warming and creating a new sustainable economy?
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    43 %
Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    34 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    9 %
Other/Undecided    14 %
Question #17
Which of the following federal leaders and parties do you believe would perform best in creating new jobs and developing Canada's economic prospects?
Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    36 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    27 %
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    27 %
Other/Undecided    10 %
Question #18
Canada is in the midst of negotiations of a Trans Pacific agreement involving countries totaling over 40% of the worlds population. One of the controversial issues involves the requirement for Canada to give up protection through supply management (tariffs on other countries dairy products) which would likely mean the loss of most if not all Canadian farms, but might lead to lower prices on these goods at least in the short term. Would you support Canada reducing tariffs to the US and others on dairy products even if it meant the end of Canada's independent farmer?
Yes    34 %
No    49 %
Undecided/Don't know    17 %
Question #19
Based on what you know, what you have heard or read and your experiences do you believe that Canada is currently in recession?
Yes    53 %
No    26 %
Undecided/Don't know    21 %
Question #20
(To Liberal, New Democrat & Green Party supporters) Would you like to see the NDP, Liberals & Greens merge as one united progressive party to beat Stephen Harper OR do you believe Stephen Harper will lose the election on his record without a merger of the Liberals and New Democrats?
I would like to see a merger of the Liberal, New Democratic & Green parties    8 %
I would NOT like to see a merger of the Liberal, New Democratic & Green parties    22 %
I believe Stephen Harper will lose the election on his record with or without any type of merger    65 %
Undecided/Don't know    5 %
Question #21
Based on the following response choices- who or what is most responsible for Canada's current economic condition (to 100%)?
World financial circumstances generally    8 %
The failure of the Conservative government to move to sustainable economies and away from resource dependence    20 %
Stephen Harper's Conservative government failed economic policies    44 %
Stephen Harper's Conservative government successful economic policies    14 %
Thomas Mulcair and Justin Trudeau's inability to offer better solutions    11 %
Undecided/Don't know    4 %
Question #22
In your opinion which of the following responses best describes Stephen Harper's political objectives?
He cares about the interests of Canada and all Canadians    24 %
He cares about being re-elected Prime Minister    65 %
Undecided/Don't know    11 %
Question #23
In your opinion which of the following responses best describes Tom Mulcair's political objectives?
He cares about the interest of Canada and Canadians    45 %
He cares about being elected Prime Minister    39 %
Undecided/Don't know    16 %
Question #24
In your opinion which of the following responses best describes Justin Trudeau's political objectives?
He cares about the interest of Canada and Canadians    50 %
He cares about being elected Prime Minister    24 %
Undecided/Don't know    26 %
Question #25
Which solution to problems related to the Senate do you most support?
Abolish the Senate    67 %
Reform the Senate    33 %
Question #26
Do you support a change in the method of voting in Federal Elections to Proportional Representation where a party receives seats in Parliament equivalent to the percentage of voters obtained in the general election?
Yes    54 %
No    37 %
Undecided/Don't know    9 %
Question #27
In a hypothetical situation with no cost to you, if you were to be paid $200 for predicting a correct minority government and $500 for picking a correct majority government, but no money for being incorrect, and after all of the ballots are counted in this Election in Canada which of the following Parliament types do you expect will be the final result?
A New Democrat minority    30 %
A New Democrat majority    11 %
A Conservative minority    22 %
A Conservative majority    6 %
A Liberal minority    26 %
A Liberal majority    4 %
Undecided/Don't know    2% %
Commentary
T. Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada: British Columbia (41%); Alberta (39%); Saskatchewan (29%); Manitoba (32%); Ontario (31%); Quebec (43%); New Brunswick (32%); Nova Scotia (32%); Prince Edward Island (21%); Newfoundland and Labrador (34%).
J. Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada: British Columbia (30%); Alberta (21%); Saskatchewan (24%); Manitoba (30%); Ontario (33%); Quebec (29%) New Brunswick (31%); Nova Scotia (46%); Prince Edward Island (47%); Newfoundland and Labrador (44%).
S. Harper and Conservatives Party of Canada: British Columbia (22%); Alberta (39%); Saskatchewan (45%); Manitoba (33%); Ontario (32%); Quebec (12%); New Brunswick (34%); Nova Scotia (20%); Prince Edward Island (23%); Newfoundland and Labrador (22%).
Based on these response outcomes and information from the 2011 Canadian federal general election we predict the following number of votes for Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada: (3,995,386), a decline in voter support of 1,837,015 from the 2011 Election with nearly one half of this decline coming from the Province of Ontario in rural, suburban and urban regions, (17%) of the total loss from British Columbia, one if five lost from the Prairie Provinces, (8%) of this voter loss from Quebec and the balance from the Atlantic Provinces.
Based on these response outcomes and information from the 2011 Canadian federal general election we predict the following number of votes for Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada: (5,283,153), an increase of nearly 800,000 voters from 2011 with these increases coming mostly from the Provinces of Ontario (40% of total), British Columbia (29% of total) and Alberta (22%) of total.
Based on these response outcomes and information from the 2011 Canadian federal general election we predict the following number of votes for Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada (4,499,476): By far the largest increase in voter support going into this 42nd Election goes to JT and Liberal Party adding an additional 1,716,301 voters.
The number of voters added to the Liberal support list is very similar to the decline on the Conservative list. Conservatives voters are moving to the Liberal Party in Ontario and it is happening quickly.
Nearly 40 percent of the total of Tom Mulcair and New Democratic support increase (450,000 voters) is directly from rural regions of Canada. These are former Conservative and Bloc Quebecois supporters in the Province of Quebec which leaves the real possibility that both Conservatives and Bloc will not elect anyone from that Province to Ottawa this year.
Liberals realize additional voter support from every province in the country with about (14%) of total from the Province of British Columbia, about (11%) percentage from the Prairie Provinces, (46%) from the Province of Ontario and much of the remainder from the Province of Quebec as well as the Atlantic Provinces where a Liberal surge in the election could sweep seats there.
Given that the Bloc has lost another 200,000 from its support base from 2011who did they go to? These additional Bloc losses are in fact going to the NDP who in turn have lost some support to the Liberal Party which is also taking Conservatives voters in the City of Montreal.
Federal Greens hold nearly (1.5%) in national support from 2011 Conservatives, apparently progressives annoyed at a lack of any environmental policy from Stephen Harper.
The New Democrat gains in rural regions may not increase riding acquisitions as quickly as suburban and urban gains do, but they reflect how Conservatives have lost their foothold in grassroots regions of the country.
The increase in New Democrat rural support is now beginning to spill over into rural/suburban type constituencies which in turn impacts on residual increase in support urban areas.
Higher rural numbers aids the NDP in the Province of British Columbia, on the Prairies and in the Atlantic Provinces where voters are dumping Conservatives and nearly trampling one another to join the Liberals and the March for the Middle Class in the Atlantic Provinces in those rural regions.
Liberal increases in rural Manitoba and Atlantic Provinces seeds new grass roots support for the party. Urban support in Vancouver, Toronto, and Ottawa are on the streaming upward. Where the Liberals must breakthrough is against the Conservatives in suburban constituencies outside these cities urban cores. If the Liberals do this the Conservative Party currently bending will break in two.
Based on these response outcomes we project the following seat count for Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada (82-97).
Based on these response outcomes we project the following seat count for Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada (136-142)
Based on these response outcomes we project the following seat count for Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada (106-111).
From Q # 2-10
The highest positive rankings for provincial governments in Canada goes to the Province of Quebec at (68%) with Newfoundland and Labrador, Saskatchewan and Alberta in close proximity. British Columbia is by far the lowest at (25%) with Manitoba second worst at (33%). Ontario's positives tilt to the low middle median of (42%).
With positives for provincial governments in Canada averaging well over 50 percent what does this suggest about the utility and efficiency of continuing with a Conservative government struggling for survival – even if it managed somehow to form another government?
From Q# 11 "Racism"
Nearly one half of decided respondents see racism as a problem. This number is over (50%) in the city of Toronto. Anecdote suggests that racism is generally regarded first in terms of poor treatment of aboriginal people, and second with African Canadian people and third with Middle Eastern people. The Province of Ontario has the highest percentage 'racism is a problem' (51%) with British Columbia and Manitoba revealing second highest numbers of “Yes” at (48%) with Atlantic Provinces lowest at (38%) “Yes”.
From Q# 12 "Global Warming"
“Yes”: British Columbia (66%); Alberta (50%); Saskatchewan (39%); Manitoba (49%); Ontario (60%); Quebec (64%); Atlantic Provinces (52%). Stephen Harper's perceived oppressive and aggressive tactics via National Energy Board and his single minded approach to exporting crude oil, with no apparent regard for citizens concerns has caused him problems across the country, but nowhere is this more evident than on the west coast of British Columbia including Vancouver City and Suburbs.
From Q# 13 "Marijuana & Alcohol"
“Yes” British Columbia (59%); Alberta (53%); Saskatchewan (49%); Manitoba (47%); Ontario (52%); Quebec (57%); Atlantic Provinces (49%). This question does not suggest any determination of how Canadians want marijuana to be dealt with by federal political leaders going forward, but it does strongly suggest that clear majority see it as no more dangerous than alcohol – the legal drug.
From Q# 14 "Jobs/Economy - Global Warming Sustainable Economy"
Jobs and the Economy: BC (46%); Alberta (54%); Saskatchewan (60%); Manitoba (47%); Ontario (45%); Quebec (50%); Atlantic Provinces (56%). Global Warming and creating a new sustainable economy: BC (48%); Alberta (42%); Saskatchewan (38%); Manitoba (41%); Ontario (53%); Quebec (52%); Atlantic Provinces (43%).
This question may be the catalyst that breaks the Conservative's hold on power. In the 2008 general election and 2011 election the narrative was that Canada's economy was flimsy and Canadians should stick with their conservative approach. This narrative is not as believable as it was and is becoming tiresome to Canadians who want action and positive change. The New Democrats historical connection to jobs (union or not) is making them the next logical choice in light of Conservative failure. If Tom Mulcair can explain how he can succeed where Stephen Harper has failed he is certain to become Prime Minister.
From Q# 27 "Pick composition of next government for $$"
This RSR ROBBINS survey reveals that there are nearly twenty percent more respondents who believe the New Democrats will form the next Canadian government than the number who actually support the party to be the next government. Supporters of all other parties to varying nominal degrees also believe the New Democrats will form the next government including current supporters of the Conservative government. By anecdote there appears to be some Conservative supporters, mostly men, who prefer Tom Mulcair to Justin Trudeau.
Twenty-five percent of total national New Democrat support comes from the Province of Quebec and (82%) of those supporters believe the New Democrats will come away with either a minority or majority government following the Election in October. Of these, nearly one half believe it will be a majority government. A very solid base for the New Democrats in the Province of Quebec with a strong threat from Liberals from the city of Montreal.
Twenty percent of total national Liberal support comes from the Province of Quebec and (52%) of those supporters believe the Liberals will come away with either a minority or majority government following the Election in October. Ten percent of this Liberal total of support from Quebec believes they will win a majority government. A decent base for the Liberals in the Province of Quebec.
Forty two percent of total national Conservative support comes from the Province of Ontario and (72%) of this group believes the Conservative government will form government. Of this group (35%) believes the Conservatives will form a majority government. The (72%) amount is a concern. A noteworthy minority of Conservative supporters in Ontario believe the party will not form government.
Methodology: This is a targeted survey of 7,625 Canadian voters from the Canadian federal general election held in May 2011. This survey was conducted July 12, 2015 to August 1, 2015. Not all contacts were made from within Canada. Adjustments have been made to reconcile baseline to 2011 voter outcome and to conform to populations from each province and voter participation from each province in that 2011 federal election. Inherent with these adjustments are requirements which manage persons who have moved or otherwise do not want to participate. These considerations should not pose problems for adjustments made overall. This is not a random poll. The Margin of Error in terms of sample and voter size population is 1.12%.

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