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RSR ROBBINS BC/Canada leaders-party/Voting/Senate/Judges/LNG/Refined Oil/Crime-C-51/inc to GST/$15/Estate Tax/Recall Christy
  Jul 07, 2015

Question #1
From the following B.C. leaders and party which is your current favourite choice? Province)
John Horgan and BC New Democrats    43 %
Andrew Weaver and BC Green Party    26 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberals    23 %
Dan Brooks and BC Conservatives    8 %
Undecided    10 %
Question #2
From the following federal leaders and party which is your current favourite choice? (Province)
Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    38 %
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    31.5 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    23 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    8.5 %
Undecided    6 %
Question #3
From the following B.C. leaders and party which is your current favourite choice? (Vancouver Island)
John Horgan and BC New Democrat Paty    47 %
Andrew Weaver and BC Green Party    32 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberal Party    12 %
Dan Brooks and BC Conservative Party    8 %
Undecided/Can/t Answer    8 %
Question #4
From the following B.C leaders and party which is your current favourite choice? ( Vancouver & Suburbs including Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, and Mission)
John Horgan and BC NDP Party    45 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberal Party    24 %
Andrew Weaver and BC Green Party    24 %
Dan Brooks and BC Conservative Party    7 %
Undecided/Can/t Answer    13 %
Question #5
From the following B.C. leaders and party which is your current favourite choice? (Fraser Valley)
John Horgan and BC New Democrat Party    36 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberal Party    30 %
Andrew Weaver and BC Green Party    21 %
Dan Brooks and BC Conservative Party    13 %
Undecided/Can/t Answer    10 %
Question #6
From the following B.C. leaders and party which is your current favourite choice? (Okanagan)
John Horgan and BC New Democrat Party    41 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberal Party    25 %
Andrew Weaver and BC Green Party    22 %
Dan Brooks and BC Conservative Party    12 %
Undecided/Can/t Answer    13 %
Question #7
From the following B.C. Leaders and party which is your current favourite choice? (Northern BC)
John Horgan and BC New Democrat Party    40 %
Andrew Weaver and BC Green Party    27 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberal Party    24 %
Dan Brooks and BC Conservative Party    9 %
Undecided/Can/t Answer    6 %
Question #8
From the following B.C. Leaders and party which is your current favourite choice? (Kootenays)
John Horgan and BC New Democrat Party    50 %
Andrew Weaver and BC Green Party    29 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberal Party    16 %
Dan Brooks and BC Conservative Party    2 %
Undecided/Can't Answer    4 %
Question #9
From the following federal leaders and party which is your current favourite choice? (Vancouver Island)
Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    40 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    12 %
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    31 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    17 %
Undecided    10 %
Question #10
From the following federal leaders and party which is your current favourite choice? (Vancouver & Suburbs including Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge and Mission)
Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    37 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    9 %
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    34 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    20 %
Undecided/Can/t Answer    11 %
Question #11
From the following federal leaders and party which is your current favourite choice? (Fraser Valley)
Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    36 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    4 %
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    23 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    37 %
Undecided    8 %
Question #12
From the following federal leaders and party which is your current favourite choice? (Okanagan)
Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    39 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    6 %
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    31 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    23 %
Undecided/Can/t Answer    23 %
Question #13
From the following federal leaders and party which is your current favourite choice? (Northern BC)
Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    43 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    13 %
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    23 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    21 %
Undecided/Can/t Answer    7 %
Question #14
From the following federal leaders and party which is your current favourite choice? (Kootenays)
Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    50 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    10 %
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    24 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    16 %
Undecided/Can't Answer    12 %
Question #15
Which method of voting do you most support at this time?
First past the post method where the candidate with the highest total in each riding is elected    40 %
Proportional Representation method where a party receives a number of members in the House of Commons or provincial legislature based on the percentage of total votes the party receives in the election BUT where 2nd place finishers could win a seat    53 %
Undecided/Can/t Answer    7 %
(Repeated question)    4 %
Question #16
(To first past the post supporters) If under the proposed Robbins Proportional Representation Method (“R.P.R.M.”) of voting no candidate coming in second place or worse and elected to government under the system, were permitted to sit in Cabinet until such time as they had won an electoral riding they ran in outright ,would you be more favourable of and support Proportional Representation?
Yes    76 %
No    23 %
Undecided/Can/t Answer    1 %
(Repeated question)    4 %
Question #17
Do you support abolishing the Canadian Senate no matter what actions are required to accomplish this, including opening up the Canadian Constitution?
Yes    61 %
No    35 %
Undecided/Can/t Answer    4 %
(Repeated question)    6 %
Question #18
Do you support the inclusion of a declaration in Canada’s Constitution describing Quebec as a “Distinct Society” based on the historical significance of the French and English cultures in that province, and its status as an original partner in Confederation?
Yes    50 %
No    37 %
Undecided/Can/t Answer    17 %
(Repeated question)    11 %
Question #19
Preamble: Hydraulic fracturing aka “Fracking” is a technique used to extract Liquefied Natural Gas from the earth. It is criticized because it requires huge amounts of water, the possibility that dangerous chemicals may contaminate ground water and that small earthquakes might also be triggered. The B.C. Liberal government is very optimistic about the economic benefits of LNG including a potential multi-billion deal with PETRONAS of Malaysia. Based on what you have just been told, what you know, or your current opinions generally are you a supporter of LNG?
Yes    12 %
No    55 %
Undecided/Don't Know    33 %
(Repeated question)    19 %
Question #20
The shipment of crude oil from Alberta to the BC coast for export abroad is a controversial issue for many British Columbians. If the Alberta government either alone or in conjunction with the BC government and federal government constructed a refinery converting the crude oil and this oil was then delivered to the coast for delivery by ship abroad would you then support this enterprise if sufficient royalties and proper financial surety against an oil spill were put in place?
Yes    44 %
No    51 %
Undecided/Don't Know    5 %
(Repeated question)    13 %
Question #21
What concerns you more? Crime in our communities, including the increase use of guns and other deadly weapons, OR the threat of terrorist attack by ISIS its affiliates or other terrorist groups?
Crime in our communities including the use of guns and other deadly weapson    62 %
The threat of terrorist attack by ISIS or its affiliates    18 %
I am not concerned by either    20 %
Undecided/Can/t Answer    5 %
(Repeated question)    3 %
Question #22
Would you be willing to pay a 1 percent increase on the federal GST if the additional revenues were paid into an account separate from General Revenues and earmarked for health care, public education, social justice and poverty, community needs, as well as investments in Green technology and renewable energy and fulfillment of transportation needs across the country?
Yes    52 %
No    41 %
Undecided    5 %
(Repeated question)    1 %
Question #23
Which of the following response choices best reflects how Canada should approach the issue of climate change and carbon emissions?
We should have a national standard to deal with carbon emissions    41 %
The provinces should each have their own standards    34.5 %
We don’t need any federal or provincial standards    24.5 %
Undecided/Don’t Know    7.5 %
(Repeated question)    4 %
Question #24
Do you support a $15 minimum wage in Canada?
Yes    55 %
No    29 %
Undecided/Don’t Know    16 %
Question #25
Do you support significantly higher taxes on estates following a death where the estate is valued at over $10 million excluding the principal residence of the deceased?
Yes    64 %
No    26 %
Undecided/Don’t Know    10 %
Question #26
Entertainment question: Based on her performance to date would you support the Recall of Christy Clark in her home riding of Westside Kelowna forcing a by election in that riding if successful.
Yes    71 %
No    25 %
Undecided/Don’t Know    4 %
Commentary
John Horgan and BC New Democrats attract (17%) more support than their closest rivals the BC Green Party, who lead the BC Liberals by (3%).
The BC NDP attract higher support (40%) in every region of British Columbia save for the Fraser Valley with noticeable increases in support in the Okanagan, Northern BC as well as an explosion of support in the Kootenay region all along the Alberta border.
Tom Mulcair’s federal New Democrats are attracting higher support to their provincial counterparts than is usual. The federal New Democrats are being challenged by Justin Trudeau and federal Liberals particularly in the populous Vancouver and the Suburbs. There are certain regions where the NDP will rake in seats including Vancouver Island, the Interior, the North, the southeast of the province as well as Vancouver suburbs. Based on this RSR ROBBINS survey it appears that British Columbia may be responsible for Canada’s first NDP government.
The Conservatives will win only 4-6 of the 42 British Columbia seats up for grabs the NDP will take at least 20 with the Liberals in at ten and the rest up for grabs. The Liberals will be hampered by the provincial Liberals widespread unpopularity and cemented ties to the federal Conservatives and that party’s fading fortunes in Canada’s historically most unstable governments.
Straight up, Proportional Representation beats the current First Past the Post method of voting among British Columbians and becomes the overwhelming choice after the introduction of the condition of the ROBBINS METHOD of Proportional Representation (no Cabinet posting for other than 1st place finishers).
Nearly 2 in 3 British Columbians are willing “to open up the Canadian Constitution” in order to abolish the Senate”. Opening up the Canadian Constitution would compel a focus on the method of determining justices particularly as these concern constitutionally appointed justices to superior court in Canada (Quebec has a different civil justice system than the rest of Canadian provinces).
A clear majority of British Columbians are willing to support Quebec being included as a “Distinct Society” in Canada, a much higher number than when asked the same question under the Meech Lake proposal nearly a quarter century ago. (The next constitutional talks should be appropriately held in Edmonton, Alberta).
Our LNG introduced some of the negative aspects of “Fracking” a technique used to extract Liquefied Natural Gas. The question also included the sense of positivity provided by the BC Liberal government including the most prominent negotiation referenced in the news, that with PETRONAS of Malaysia.
Support for LNG in Vancouver and the suburbs is under (10%) with an Undecided of nearly (40%). Apparently for British Columbians “now they don’t know”.
In contrast, support for the shipment of refined oil from Alberta is supported with conditions, the most conspicuous being the inclusion of refinery processing (and jobs presumably). For the first time in our studies over (40%) of British Columbians including in Vancouver and the Suburbs (41%) support the shipment of oil but only as refined product. In the midst of such apparent mercurial change on the climate change front in the United States and Canada as well as the apparent rejection of LNG are more British Columbians considering shipment of refined oil?
It is interesting to see the break out of support along these lines from various political affiliations. Only one third of BC Liberal supporters are backing LNG while (57%) support refined oil. (48%) of BC NDP supporters support the shipment of refined oil while (45%) of Federal NDP and (33%) of Federal Liberals support the shipment of refined oil. (21%) of BC Greens support refined oil while (11%) of Federal Greens support it. (64%) of Federal Conservatives support refined oil (with many in anecdote who don’t think the refining is necessary), and (61%) of BC Conservatives supporting refined oil shipment.
More than 8 in 10 British Columbians are more concerned with crime and increased gun use in communities or have no concerns than are concerned with the threat of ISIS or other terrorists. (When are Canadians going to be surprised with some type of event promoting the evils of terrorism during the election campaign?)
A surprise majority of British Columbians in their respective capacities as Canadian tax payers are willing to pay an additional 1 percent in GST on the condition that this additional amount is designated for specific services and not directed to General Revenues of the Government. Some respondents who supported this believed that such specific designation would make it more difficult to raise the GST by more than 1%. Politically such a move might inoculate the NDP or Liberals from being labelled tax and spenders while unleashing billions of dollars into needed services and infrastructure.
A high minority of British Columbians are of the opinion that emissions standards in relation to carbon costs and charges should reflect a national standard, while the 2nd highest minority believes these standards ought to be kept within the authority of each province.
The matter of higher wages continues to be front and centre with British Columbians, Canadians and people in all western cultures. Our RSR question on the Tom Mulcair $15 dollar minimum wage is well supported in British Columbia.
On the other side of progressive taxes, the idea of higher estate taxes has been consistently rejected. We propose a very modest amount of tax threshold at $10 million (with exclusion of residential property). The response is amazing as a clear majority of British Columbians are willing to back such as proposal. This result will test the veracity of progressive candidates to the people and not to the establishment, the former who clearly support increased estate taxes while the latter shudders at the possibility.
More than 7 in 10 British Columbians support the Recall of Premier Christy Clark. In the Okanagan region this number is slightly less at (67%) with many responding “NO” indicating that they would rather “keep her (Christy) around until the election”. This is similar or worse to negative attitudes towards the Premier prior to the previous election in 2013 and look what that that achieved. Describing the Premier as “incompetent” or “not in charge of the province” is pretty much mainstream conversation two years in from her surprise provincial election win.
A Recall of Premier Clark is a smart idea politically for opponents at this time not only because she and her party are not popular but because there is a federal election in progress. If you are the NDP with growing popularity in the region it is an opportunity to put the funk on the Liberal brand. If you are the BC Conservatives it is an opportunity to step in front of a federal Conservative party which largely supports the BC Liberals and is friends to Christy Clark and showcase that you are distinct and separate.
If you are the Greens it is an opportunity to pile on an LNG program which is not supported in the province but do so in a region where the undecided on the subject remains high even if support in not so high.
On the provincial side it would force Christy Clark to stop hiding and do her job.
This is a targeted RSR ROBBINS survey of 832 residents of British Columbia who voted in the most recent provincial general election 2013. This survey was conducted June 21, 2015 to July 2, 2015 and features a Margin of Error of 3.4% plus or minus 19 times out of 20 @ 95% competency. A number of questions have noteworthy percentages of repeat questions and/or high Undecided which the reader should take into consideration.

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