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RSR ROBBINS Canadian National Survey May 15, 2015: T. Mulcair and NDP (33%), J. Trudeau and Liberals (32.5%), S. Harper and Conservatives (26.5%)
CCR Proud Mary  May 15, 2015

The 42nd general federal election in Canada will be held October 19, 2015. This RSR Survey asserts that based on current outcomes from Canadians voters (2011), if the vote outcome from October 19, 2015 mirrored this survey, on October 20, 2015 Stephen Harper will not be Prime Minister of Canada.
In November 2005 in an interview with national radio Glen P. Robbins predicted a Stephen Harper minority government which provoked cat calls from the usual suspects. In the election two months later this prediction was realized. In February 2008 candidate for the Democratic nomination Barack Obama was suggested by the largest mainstream pollsters in the United States as trailing frontrunner Hillary Clinton by 12-20 percentage points. ROBBINS Sce Research polled Barack Obama (4%) ahead of Ms. Clinton, and save for August of that year he ran wire to wire. In that same election cycle Republican John McCain was trailing virtually all other Republican candidates in every mainstream poll. ROBBINS Sce Research 1998 predicted he would win the Republican nomination.
In 2004 months before Election Day ROBBINS Sce Research predicted George W. Bush would win the 2004 presidency when the polls showed Democrat nominee John Kerry winning.
This survey follows a dramatic shift in Alberta politics preceding this survey, where the New Democratic Party in that province won a significant majority in the provincial general election, replacing the Progressive Conservatives who had ruled the provincial politics for 44 years.
This RSR Survey serves to help answer the question: Will the Alberta result affect the federal political scene? The answer suggested from these outcomes is a certain “Yes”. This position is supported by political expert and pollster Bruce Anderson et al who asked Albertans essentially if they regretted their decision to vote New Democrat, with the overwhelming response from Albertans that they did not.
The New Democrat win in the Alberta provincial election appears to have impacted federal numbers from this survey for the New Democrats in neighbouring British Columbia where leader and party are up (5%) there to (37%), and has also impacted dramatically in all other provinces including, particularly, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, where NDP numbers up significantly, Quebec where numbers at 2011 levels, and in the Province of Ontario by a few percentage points.
The increase in national public support for the NDP from British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba increases based on RSR survey to survey is nearly (4%)
The increase in national public support for the NDP from Quebec’s contribution in RSR ROBBINS survey to survey is (1.5%).
The increase in national public support for the NDP from Ontario’s contribution is (<1%).
This assessment of the Alberta provincial election vote outcomes on national NDP popularity is considered in comparisons from 308 the mainstream public opinion polling aggregator which stipulates on its website: “Projection of May 15, 2015 including polling in the field to May 12, 2015.” 308 features the federal New Democrat support at 24 percent average with high score support for New Democrats at 25.9 percent. These 308 national scores for the NDP are (8.5%) and (6.5%) (respectfully) below our RSR survey outcomes for the New Democrats, well outside any margin of error.
Our massive RSR survey dated April 13, 2015 or little more than one month ago, featured Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada at (26.14%) suggesting national increases for the federal New Democrat support totals from RSR survey to survey in one month of (7%), with the Alberta provincial election in between. The 308 polling aggregate national totals reflect high numbers for the NDP at this date equivalent to our RSR totals one month ago.
There is a huge difference between the current numbers mainstream polling aggregator has for the federal NDP and what this RSR survey is suggesting. Here is some of the commentary from Ms. Kellie Robbins in the massive RSR survey of April 13, 2015:
“Stephen Harper and Conservative Party fell about (4.5%) over the period, while Tom Mulcair and New Democrats increased by (4%). Although not directly related, these numbers are no accident as New Democrats proved they can take voters from the Conservative list and onto their own.”
IN TERMS of voter estimation of which federal party leader is the harder worker – the results are telling and must be interpreted by Conservative supporters as problematic for the Prime Minister. The New Democrats Tom Mulcair is easily the front runner, with Justin Trudeau 2nd, and Prime Minister Stephen Harper a distant 3rd. Voters from 2011 are recognizing hard work particularly from the New Democrat and Green leaders.”
“The numbers of respondents concerned with terrorism began to descend through the survey period as did Mr. Harper’s numbers on estimation of hard work. Opposition leader Mulcair’s pounding prosecutorial presentations punished and pulverized Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s more flippant responses. This helped the former’s reputation greatly and hurt the latter’s more.”
“The Conservative government’s biggest asset Stephen Harper may have become its biggest liability - overnight. For many Canadian voters – the position of Loyal Opposition is seen as government in waiting, and this status, in these circumstances preempts the party brand of the Opposition. This is what is causing the switch of some Conservative voters 2011 to support New Democrats.”
The Alberta provincial election produces a contributory influence of over (6%) nationally where our previous massive sized survey April 13, 2015 revealed that some federal Conservatives were voting New Democrat.
The New Democratic gains are Conservatives losses. From a high in the mid- forties obtain from the 2011 federal general election, the Conservatives look to potentially lose everything in British Columbia where support has been cut in half. Conservative support across the Prairie Provinces has decreased by (30-50%) from previous highs.
Support for the Conservative government is becoming like slag in Ontario garnering (27%) support in that province. Similarly, support for the Harper government is also softening in the Atlantic Provinces also at (27%).
The federal Liberals have benefitted nationally modestly in indirect benefit from the Alberta provincial election experience. Although increase in support in British Columbia is only modest, and gains across the Prairies of late have been affected by the New Democratic emergence in those province, the Liberals have gained substantially in Ontario, noteworthy in Quebec, (particularly Montreal) and right across the Atlantic Provinces with noteworthy gains in Nova Scotia (41%). Original Canada has gone back to the federal Liberals and has abandoned support for PM Stephen Harper’s rendition of Reform.
The New Democrats are the ‘new reformers’ in the western provinces with accompanying high support in Quebec (Canada’s 2nd largest province). The federal Liberals are dominating in Ontario and the Atlantic Provinces—the Conservative government is either leaking support or is being expelled in every nook and cranny in the country based on quite possibly the worst 3 months of politics in any Canadian government in many years.

Question #1
Which leader and party do you currently support?
Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    33 %
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    32.5 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    26.5 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    4.5 %
Mario Beaulieu and Bloc Quebecois Party    3.5 %
Other Leader and Party    1% %
Undecided    6 %
Question #2
Which component of government policy based on these limited response choices on the economy is most important to you?
More across the board tax cuts for Canadians    19 %
More social programs and increased federal funding for Infrastructure development    23 %
Continued low interest rates for mortgages, loans and business-    18 %
More (and better)-paying jobs    39 %
Question #3
Do you support Bill C-51 allowing more widespread authority to police and Canada’s spy agency?
Yes    17 %
No    78 %
Undecided/Don't Know    5 %
Question #4
Do you support Bill C-51 with greater government oversight of that police authority and Canada’s spy agency?
Yes    28 %
No    71 %
Commentary
Outcomes were obtained in two relatively equal phone sweeps. The governing Conservatives increased (2%) from 1st sweep to 2nd, increased (2%) in Manitoba and (1%) in Quebec. The party dropped (1%) in Alberta, (2%) in Saskatchewan, (1%) in Ontario and (1%) in the Atlantic Provinces.
Over this period the Liberal Party held even from one sweep of respondents to the next, was up (2%) in Saskatchewan, down (3%) in Manitoba, up (1%) in Ontario, up (2%) in Quebec and up (2%) in Atlantic Canada, including the profound increases in Nova Scotia.
From question 2, Saskatchewan demanded “more across the board tax cuts for Canadians” to the highest percentage (30%), and claimed 3rd highest for “more and better paying jobs” at (43%). Albertans wanted “more and better paying jobs” to the highest percentage (47%) and demanded more tax cuts to the lowest percentile (14%).
Ontario demands more tax cuts to the 2nd highest total percentage (23%) and was 4th for demanding “more and better paying jobs (39%). Nova Scotia was 2nd demanding “more and better paying jobs” at (45%), while British Columbia was 3rd in this category (41%) and 5th for tax cuts demands (20%). Manitoba was 5th in line for demanding more-better paying jobs and 8th place for demanding tax cuts (12%).
The Province of British \Columbia crows the loudest about high paying jobs, while the population apparently denies any such claims.
Quebec was 7th demanding more tax cuts (14%) and 7th in demand outcomes for more and better paying jobs (37%). Newfoundland and Labrador was 1st demanding more-better paying jobs (52%) and 10th in demanding tax cuts at (8%). If this RSR survey holds true and both Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition come from Montreal – one might expect Quebec to realize on new jobs.
Ontario produced highest outcomes in support of Bill C-51 (in its present naked version) defined in our questions 3 “allowing more widespread authority to police and Canada’s spy agency” and presented with oversight in question 4 as (23%), and with (33%) support with oversight. British Columbia was lowest in support of the Bill (6%) with (11%) with oversight. Quebec supports the current version to (19%) and (32%) with oversight. Alberta supported the current version bill to (17%) and with oversight (20%).
Stephen Harper’s Conservative government is in trouble leading up to and following the incredible political turnaround following the Alberta provincial election. The Alberta outcome represents a realization that in Canadian politics when voters have had enough – there is no going back. There is never any certainty that a provincial election, no matter how dramatic, can impact on a large and diverse population each with its own interests and demands. The Alberta provincial exception may prove to be a more certain contributor if for no other reason that anything is possible. This type of sentiment could and likely will spill into higher turnouts from under represented age demographics, which we believe may coincide without lower voter turnout from older Canadians.
This scenario does not spell relief for Stephen Harper’s Conservatives.
The Alberta election is extraordinary and historic in context of its obvious connection to this survey and to polls which will come. The bedrock culture of Canadian conservatism for 44 years this turnabout was so profound, and so sudden, it literally shook the entire country, and rocked the western provinces. The new western New Democrat supporter is part Reformer and part pure New Democrat each with common grass roots movements, originally manifested through Preston Manning and materialized through the election of Stephen Harper as Canada’s Prime Minister.
The new hybrid founded by the Alberta NDP and Rachel Notley represents a pragmatic and spirited effort by Albertans to acknowledge that change is required, (at least for their province). Progressive Conservative leader Jim Prentice pronounced that a new day was coming, and Albertans agreed, but also decided that Jim Prentice and Conservative leaders were not the persons to usher that change in. In many respects it is Jim Prentice that may have unwittingly done the right thing at the right time, but to his own or his parties benefit, and possibly for the benefit of Canada.
The benefit to Canadians as it was for Alberta is simply that if it takes Alberta 44 years to make sweeping local change it appears to be taking less time to make changes at the federal level. They have lost confidence in Conservative government and the “arrogant” “Ottawa – centric” government of Stephen Harper. When a political leader preaches the gospel of the grass roots and then acts the image of an old English aristocrat – it is only a matter a time before Canadians will cut him (or her) down to size and this RSR Survey sets the time table to October 19, 2015 for such an event in Prime Minister Stephen Harpers history as leader of Canada. The end is near.
As occurred in the early 1990’s, western Canada is moving toward change to protect its interest and like Quebec is willing to stake its claim with the New Democrats and Tom Mulcair who have performed well enough in Opposition in Parliament to have earned Canadians trust.
Canada’s senior partner Ontario is noticing this – but is intending to stake its interest in Justin Trudeau someone they know is tied to the institutions which aggregate within its own borders. Canada’s other senior partner Quebec, historically less satisfied with its place in Canada (and no signature on the country’s Constitution) is, as indicated, most confidence overall with Tom Mulcair, NDP leader from Montreal, who Quebec apparently believes can “express their demands sufficiently” to “appease their needs.”
Quebec has a very Liberal political soul and despite residual resentment toward the Trudeau – Chretien rejection of Quebec’s bona fide interests in the Canadian family (less so apparently in the Constitutional formula for provincial agreement) –and thus still seeks to resolve the conflict through good old fashioned leverage which if these numbers hold would make Quebec with its higher population and seat count, the decider of the next Government of Canada. (Where will RSR establish head office – in Montreal or Montreal)?
Three months ago Stephen Harper’s Conservatives still had a chance at minority government. This possibility has passed now and ironically enough through political events on home ice. Any incumbent government of a number of years always has an opportunity to turn things around particularly when the incumbent controls the budget and the economic levers, but these opportunities appear to have been squandered by the Conservative Party of Canada.
Failure followed the Conservatives push on C-51. The Harper government’s claim for C-51’s necessity promoted to great degree in mainstream media while the issue was ‘hot’ and accompanied by regrettable and unnecessary meanness on the part of the Harper government for obvious political advantage revealed the true nature of the Harper government as petty and self-interested, or as many Canadians feel acting in other interests than that of the Canadian people. The meanness is being directed back toward the Prime Minister through the message of derogatory remarks now about both he and his wife, seen of late on the ‘campaign trail’.
The Conservatives budget was a failure as well. The Harper government lost is calculator along the way having come to believe that a 39% vote in 2011 entitled them to act as if they had obtained over 51% of support, (a number which now may be the level of confidence in Mr. Harper’s own caucus).
This delusion affected the Conservative budget an effort without any pretense with the direct objective of benefitting Canada’s wealthier citizens. The budget broke the back of this government which has survived on its leadership on the economy. Canadians don’t have the confidence in the government on the economy any more, in large part because as our survey reveals the new Canadian ideal is for more better paying jobs, something they believe the New Democrats are built to do.
Canadians are aware that U.S. President is on his way out and are also aware that the opportunity for a return to a Republican presidency. History has taught us that Canadians like a federal government that is different in ideology than a Republican government (The Clinton factor notwithstanding).
When (62%) of Canadians see more better paying jobs and infrastructure development as the most important components of the economy than it is fair to theorize that Canadians want government to act to stimulate the economy and to assist and support their opportunities through economic action. The Government of Canada has apparently had an economic action plan going for some time now, which according to this RSR Survey is apparently unrecognizable to Canadians.
The other inference that can be drawn on the economic question is the fact that low taxes are not what a majority of Canadians are clamoring for. They want more good paying jobs they want services and will pay their taxes according.
The number of Canadians in support of legislation giving greater powers to the RCMP and Canada’s spy agency have floundered in two successive RSR surveys including the April 13, 2015 massive RSR survey and this one, suggesting Canadians don’t’ want it with or without oversight unless less than one in three of Canadians is a new majority.
This is an RSR survey of 1, 421 Canadians undertaken between May 7, 2015 to May 14, 2015. This survey attracts a margin of error based on the overall number of 2.61%. This percentage of MOE is based on a population base equivalent to the number of Canadians who voted and was produced by two sweeps of the provinces. Final numbers are based on adjustments made to satisfy demographics of gender in each province as they exist and not based necessarily on the demographics for gender who actually voted. These adjustments to gender were particularly necessary given that survey outcomes produced a natural occurring female response outcome of (55%) to (45%) overall. Readers should also note that some polls produced issue support for political parties based on actual support and are not grossed up to reflect decided support as this RSR survey has done and normally does.
Conservatives BC-21%, 23 Alberta-37%, 36 Saskatchewan-42%, 40 Manitoba-35%, 37 Ontario-28%, 27 Quebec-10%, 11 Atlantic Provinces-28%, 27
NDP BC-37%, 37 Alberta-34%, 34 Saskatchewan-30%, 31 Manitoba-27%, 30 Ontario-25%, 26 Quebec-41%, 41 Atlantic Provinces-30%, 32
Liberal BC-26%, 26 Alberta-25%, 25 Saskatchewan-24%, 26 Manitoba-33%, 30 Ontario-40%, 41 Quebec-27%, 29 Atlantic Provinces-35%, 37%

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