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RSR ROBBINS - Vancouver Mayors poll - Robertson, Lapointe, Wong - 1 week to go - read all about it!
  Nov 10, 2014

Question #1
Which of the following politicians and party/political organization do you support in the upcoming civic election in Vancouver City?
Gregor Robertson and Vision Vancouver    40.04 %
Kirk Lapointe and Non Partisan Association    36.70 %
Meena Wong and Coalition of Progressive Electors    12.44 %
Undecided    8 %
Commentary
In an RSR ROBBINS test poll we discovered in July 2014 (41.5%-) support for Gregor Robertson, (31%) for Kirk Lapointe and (22%) for Tim Louis and COPE with (8%) undecided
The commentary in that summer poll read as follows:
“Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson and his Vision Vancouver Team lead the way in public support as we head toward the final turn and on to election date November 15, 2014. His lead over Kirk Lapointe and NPA is just under 10 percentage points. Tim Louis a designate leader for COPE is back of Kirk Lapointe's NPA, also by 10 per cent. Gregor Robertsons's median support (42%) is slightly higher than his average support, while Kirk Lapointe's median is lower at (30%). (77%) of GR and Vision Vancouver supporters are against pipeline expansion, while (21%) support it. KL and NPA support for pipeline expansion is (40%) while opposition is (45%). (62%) of COPE supporters are against pipeline expansion, while (28%) support it. (52%) of GR and Vision supporters are of the opinion that Vancouver bike lanes have been successful, while (32%) say that have not been. Only (8%) of KL and NPA supporters are behind the bike lanes while (70%) are not. (29%) of COPE supporters believe the bike lanes have been successful, while (44%) say that have not.”
Following this more current RSR poll with double the respondents, Gregor Robertson looks ready to win his third term as Vancouver mayor however this race is much closer than his easy 2011 win over BC Liberal Justice Attorney General Suzanne Anton by a dozen percentage points and the difference between himself and his nearest competitor Kirk Lapointe has gone from (10-12%) to under 4%.
Although he remains poised to win, Gregor Robertson’s political posture is somewhat stooped as Vancouverites are falling out of synch with the vision he and his party have for Vancouver. A competitor with no chance of winning in July 2014 has a shot at beating him with one week to go.
Although the challenge from Kirk Lapointe of the Non Partisan Association appears no better than the 2011 Non Partisan Association efforts of 2011, the race is much closer this year based primarily on the fact that COPE, the Coalition of Progressive Electors is running a candidate for mayor who a noteworthy minority of Vancouver residents like – in Meena Wong.
Clearly Ms. Wong, a real down to earth activist for people, is taking from Gregor Robertson who is earning the incumbent’s historical criticism of promising and not delivering, but there is an element of the protest vote here as well - with some voters who might park with other candidates (and not pick one of the two front runners (and even a handful of progressives in the NPA liking her style)).
Most recently Gregor Robertson’s Team filed a lawsuit against Kirk Lapoint for defamation and COPE’s David Cadman came out to support him. It is difficult to know if this hurt Robertson or helped him, we may know better on voting day. Some voters are suspicious of lawsuits during elections while others not inclined toward the NPA believe it already because “they expect it from the BC Liberals.”
It is unfortunate for NPA supporters that once again their candidate runs in a civic election at the same time the provincial government is unpopular.
All in all the message drifting through Vancouver that Kirk Lapointe doesn’t live in the city he wants to be mayor of is likely the best one the Vision Team has to combat Gregor Robertson’s declining political fortunes, as it resonates with many voters more interested in where he actually lives – is it Burnaby or is it Calgary-than in any plans as mayor.
For a big city – Vancouver still has a small town attitude towards politicians living in the city they wish to lead. The news about corporate money funding the outsider also doesn’t play well in the campaign as more people become increasingly offended by the issue of influence in political contests. Although Gregor Robertson’s campaign isn’t funded by proceeds from lemonade sales – this has stuck to Mr. Lapointe and has become the recognized brand.
Once again a connection is being made between Mr. Lapointe and the BC Liberals – given former NPA candidate for mayor Suzanne Anton’s ascension to provincial politics—there is a powerful hint that this is the real ambition of Kirk Lapointe. As unlikely as that motivation for running for Vancouver mayor may be, it is the little flecks of dust and doubt that impede progress evident in the NPA numbers.
David Cadman’s support may not be as expected. Some COPE supporters are annoyed and ignited by it, while some NPA supporters see it as an expression that Gregor Robertson is in trouble and are energized by the proposition that they still could win this election.
Kirk Lapointe’s lack of clarity on the issue of pipelines and Goldman Sachs ships and oil through Vancouver waters – versus Gregor Robertson’s complete clarity on the matter – is to Gregor Robertson’s unequivocal advantage and may ultimately be the stone that turns the outcome here for a three peat. What is the real reason Kirk Lapointe is running for mayor?
One can see a sunset hovering very near Gregor Robertson’s career as mayor of Vancouver. It is uncertain if that sunset is intended for this campaign or the next but it exists in the growing lack of confidence many former voters have in him. Despite a pretty drab performance by Kirk Lapointe it is entirely possible that he still might win the mayors chair by weeks end. The fact more than one third of undecided voters of the undecided in this RSR ROBBINS survey are from the west side where Suzanne Anton attracted support might be cause for pause in determining the outcome of this campaign – as Mr. Lapointe’s decided numbers are currently just under (40%). These undecided voters in his political bailiwick – could give him a bump up to (43%).
COPE’s Meena Wong is grabbing up votes in the areas of the east side which Gregor Robertson has dominated unchallenged in the past. His decided amounts are already at (43%) - if his incumbent advantage shines through among east side undecided this number could reach (48%). If on the other hand Meena Wong attains the high side (17%) we see possible and Kirk Lapointe realizes a good get out the vote – we could see a close contest.
Prediction: !5% chance of Kirk Lapointe upset – otherwise Gregor Robertson by (5 percent).
Methodology: 1,222 persons Vancouver City - Likely to Vote on November 15, 2014 (who voted in the previous election in 2011). The Margin of Error using a population size equal to the number of persons who voted in the 2011 Vancouver City municipal elections and the total respondent number is 2.79% plus or minus. This RSR ROBBINS poll was conducted between November 2-7, 2014.

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