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John Horgan/NDP, Christy Clark/BC Liberals, Adam Olsen/BC Greens, Dan Brooks/BC Conservatives, Stephen Harper, Justin Trudeau, Christmas/Remembrance Day- ISIS, RCMP, Canada's Bikers. RSR ROBBINS October 2014 Survey.
  Oct 29, 2014

Question #1
Which leader and party do your currently support in British Columbia?
John Horgan and BC New Democrats    34 %
Christy Clark and BC Liberals    24 %
Adam Olsen and BC Greens    18 %
Dan Brooks and BC Conservatives    18 %
Other/Undecided    9 %
Question #2
Which of the following response choices represents something that concerns you most?
Stephen Harper winning another majority next year    24 %
ISIS coming to Canada to commit a terrorist act    4 %
Justin Trudeau becoming Prime Minister of Canada next year    12 %
Christy Clark as BC Premier for another 2 and one half years    22 %
Alberta oil pipelines coming to British Columbia    18 %
Expanding powers and resources to the RCMP    20 %
Question #3
How would you rate Stephen Harper's Conservative government on a scale of Good, Fair and Poor?
Good    22 %
Fair    17 %
Poor    57 %
Undecided    4 %
Question #4
Should Canada commit resources to combat ISIS?
Yes    22 %
No    71 %
Undecided    6 %
Question #5
How would you rate Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party in terms of federal Opposition on a scale of Good, Fair and Poor?
Good    29 %
Fair    42 %
Poor    26 %
Undecided    3 %
Question #6
How would you rate Christy Clark's BC Liberal government on a scale of Good, Fair and Poor?
Good    15 %
Fair    23 %
Poor    58 %
Undecided    4 %
Question #7
Do you support the construction of the Enbridge and Kinder Morgan/Trans Mountain pipeline across northern British Columbia and the lower mainland of the province?
Yes    35 %
No    58 %
Undecided    7 %
Question #8
Would you like to see the RCMP replaced with a provincial and municipal force?
Yes    55 %
No    27 %
Undecided    18 %
Question #9
What is your opinion of promoting Christmas before Remembrance Day?
Its' fine    19 %
It offends me    53 %
Undecided    28 %
Question #10
The Netherlands and Germany, European countries not participating in the middle east battle against ISIS- have approved bikers like the Hells Angels and others to go on their own initiative to fight ISIS. Would you support Canada's bikers going to the middle east to do battle with ISIS?
Yes    64 %
No    24 %
Undecided    10 %
Commentary
John Horgan and BC New Democrats have nearly double the current support of Christy Clark and BC Liberals. Mr. Horgan's party has support throughout BC as follows (calculated to decided amount): Vancouver Island (46%), Vancouver City (44%), Vancouver Suburbs (35%), Fraser Valley (25%), Southern Interior (29%), Northern and South Eastern BC (33%).
Christy Clark and BC Liberals as follows: Vancouver Island (11%), Vancouver City (28%), Vancouver Suburbs (25%), Fraser Valley (26%), Southern Interior (28%), Northern and South Eastern BC (28%)
Adam Olsen and BC Greens as follows: Vancouver Island (24%), Vancouver City (19%), Vancouver Suburbs (20%), Fraser Valley (18%), Southern Interior (16%), Northern and South Eastern BC (17%).
Dan Brooks and BC Conservatives as follows: Vancouver Island (19%), Vancouver City (9%), Vancouver Suburbs (20%), Fraser Valley (31%), Southern Interior (27%), Northern and South Eastern BC (22%).
John Horgan and BC New Democrats (once again) take a substantial lead over the BC Liberals (once again) in serious trouble with BC Voters from 2013. There is one difference here however. A federal election is on the horizon and events in Ottawa of this week have sent center right voters scrambling to party brands for comfort. The benefit the BC Liberals have held is that they attract federal conservatives and liberals in their provincial hybrid.
With the bona fide ascent of the federal Liberals in a position of possibly forming government next year after a year of steady support for that party and its leader Justin Trudeau, the BC Liberal brand could be seriously tested. Christy Clark is losing support to Dan Brooks and his Conservative Party. The response to this suggestion would logically be: Haven't we seen this before with the BC Conservatives? The fair answer would be “Yes” but we believe this is different based on the evidence in this survey.
We believe that the circumstances in Ottawa generally (election issues) and specifically (shooting on Parliament Hill) have impacted on the psyche of British Columbians who don't support BC NDP or Green and vote BC Liberal over BC Conservative.
Many voters have decided (once again) that Christy is not up to the job of Premier and some of those on the centre right of the voting spectrum believe that Conservatives, and not Liberals, require their support. These particular voters do not support Justin Trudeau, and some of them believe Christy is his friend. Still particular others who like Justin Trudeau - do not like Christy as many of these voters believe she is Stephen Harper's friend.
Some supporters of BC Conservatives want pipeline construction and expansion while others do not. Some see Christy as a supporter of pipelines and others do not, while many more do no have any idea where she is at causing an avalanche of doubt in her leadership from all party supporters. Voters on the centre right have not idea what Christy or her party stands for beyond a balanced budget and it reflects in the numbers. Does she care about the environment and what has she done or is she doing about the Mount Polley mining disaster? She caused much confusion on the Education file and despite checks presumably rolling out to some families this has not translated into any form of gratitude toward her or her party based on the very low support.
Christy's compulsion to the budget is hinged to the economy and her track record on this is already seen as disastrous causing most of the concern about her leadership acumen. This pre occupation which has provided her benefit and political relief in the past, will be substantially tested as federal Conservatives are forced to re evaluate their position of big spending leading up to the next election. Falling oil prices anticipated for some time with OPEC control over supply in decline – and US sources of secure home grown oil, coupled with new stream of production from Latin America, put Canada's economic position in doubt, and the Conservatives promises of income splitting or paying off debt also in equal doubt.
Ultimately this political reality of low BC Liberal support has been previously explained by the duration of time until the next election. However, if these RSR ROBBINS numbers are indicative, the run up to the federal election in a circumstance when party brand increasingly matters – the BC Liberals could be in for serious trouble by next fall, 60 per cent through their term with the looming expecation that they will not have a Conservative majority to play with.
A Trudeau or Mulcair government in minority or majority will isolate the federal Conservatives and Christy Clark will become political Ebola as a consequence as she very likely hasn't the political skill to manage her way through this.
Of six response choices (16.6% random) three of the choices of concern Stephen Harper majority, Christy Clark premier and RCMP which represent (50%) of response choice attract (66%) of concern. If one adds in Alberta oil pipelines (or 2/3rds) of response choices than the concern factor of the four response choices is (84%) or 30 per cent above random.
Measured against ISIS each of these response choices is 5-6 times the concern to Canadians in the Province of British Columbia.
Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau possesses double the “Good”/”Fair” support of both Stephen Harper and Christy Clark, (and historically British Columbia has never been a hot bed of support for the federal Liberals).
Despite an extensive campaign over a long period of time support for new pipelines for oil is not increasing – in fact – opposition to it would seem to be slowly creeping up to 60%.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police are not held in high favour among BC Voters, with a high percentage of British Columbians supporting replacing them with provincial and municipal police forces. These numbers would suggest more evidence of cracks in the federal Conservative and BC Liberal coalition. The RCMP has never recovered its reputation in this province following the Dziekanski taser with some respondents now openly calling this a homicide. RCMP police conduct in British Columbia following this has left voters with sharply declining confidence – something which isn't easy to do with most police forces who do their jobs and commit to enforcing the Criminal Code.
Many British Columbians are offended by Christmas being promoted prior to Remembrance Day.
Perhaps the 'new bellwether' of branding going forward is our final question about European bikers going to the middle east to fight ISIS and the idea that Canadian bikers might do the same. 7 of 10 decided voters support this proposal. Repeat – 7 in 10 decided British Columbians see the possibility of the Hells Angels and other becoming the next Hometown Hero.
After the shooting in Ottawa, Canada may never be the same, but the change may not be exactly what some expected.
Methodology: An RSR ROBBINS survey of 1,013 British Columbians between October 21-26, 2014. This survey features a margin of error of 3.0%, 19 times out of 20 @ 95%.

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