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RSR ROBBINS Research - Canada Politics April 8, 2014
  Apr 08, 2014

Question #1
Which federal leader and party to you currently support? (Totals to 100%)
Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    38 %
Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    30 %
Thomas Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    27 %
Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    3.5 %
Other including Bloc Quebecois    3 %
Undecided    11 %
Question #2
In your opinion how is Canada's economy performing at this point in time under the Stephen Harper Conservative government?
The economy is performing very well    24 %
The economy is not performing very well    27 %
The economy is performing moderately well    21 %
The economy is performing poorly    24 %
Commentary
Justin Trudeau's federal Liberals continue to outdistance 2nd place Stephen Harper and his Conservative government as we turn the corner toward election readiness for May 2015.
His party continues to show strength in Ontario and Quebec with (42%) and (36%) respectively.
The Trudeau Liberals are showing real promise in British Columbia (31%) and are showing better in the Atlantic provinces with Manitoba (29%), Saskatchewan (27%) and Alberta (25%).
The Atlantic province are also realizing promise for the federal Liberals with New Brunswick (29%), Nova Scotia (34%), Prince Edward Island (32%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (45%).
The Harper Conservatives are in trouble in Upper and Lower Canada with Ontario (27%), Quebec (13%). The west remains strong but is not as dominating in support as it has been in the past decade. Manitoba (37%), Saskatchewan (50%) and Alberta (50%) reveals a strong base in the prairies. British Columbia remains hopeful at (32%).
Thomas Mulcair and the federal New Democrats are performing well in Ontario and Quebec with (28%) and (33%), though the Quebec numbers vs the Liberal gains in that province must be disconcerting.
The New Democrats are also showing more support in the prairies with (28%) Saskatchewan, similar support in Manitoba and only (19%) in Alberta. British Columbia remains somewhat disappointing for the federal version of the NDP at (27%) The New Democrats are performing well against historical norms in the prairie provincew with (26%) in Manitoba, (29%) in Saskatchewan, and (19%) in Alberta.
The Green Party of Canada continues to hold support across the country at (3.5%) with many voters in a number of provinces more concerned about money than the planet.
Is the Bloc Quebecois (3.5%) heading to oblivion in federal politics?
Stephen Harper's Conservatives are no longer the darlings of the economy they have been claiming for many years, particularly declaring themselves saviours of the country since 2008 recession on this account.
Many Canadians are waking up to realize that our economy improves when life is breathed into the United States economic fortunes. Stephen Harper may receive credit for not messing things up, but we are into year 6 since the Wall Street et al meltdown, and regular people are looking for more tangible results.
(45%) of Canadians believe the economy is performing very well or moderately well, while the remainder believe it is performing not very well or poorly.
Based on the outcomes of question 2 on the performance of the economy to the leader and party outcomes from question 1, we hypothesize that if the numbers of Canadians who believe the economy is performing very well or moderately well increase so might the fortunes of the Conservatives. If these numbers decrease however, the possibility that the Conservative party power might collapse increases.
This is an RSR survey of 1,440 voters from internal lists of voters from the last federal general election on May 2, 2011. This survey was conducted by telephone between March 28th and April 5th 2014. It has a margin of error of 2.5%, 19 times out of 20 @ 95% confidence.
Kellie Robbins

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